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000
FXUS63 KLSX 220908
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
408 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.

GIVEN MDL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...HAVE LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. TO ADD TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...THE LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS TSRA SHUD BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER STRONG
S/W CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS S/W STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING IF THE
LLJ CAN RESPOND BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN US.

ANOTHER S/W CURRENTLY OVER SRN NEB IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY. THIS S/W SHUD HELP INITIATE ISOD TO SCT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CDFNT. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS SE MO AND SW/S CNTL IL WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPER. ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHUD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

AS FOR TEMPS...TRENDED AOB COOLEST MOS ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF
THE CWA AND NEAR THE WARMEST MOS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY. TRENDED A
LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE CWA WILL BE BEHIND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...DID NOT GO TOO MUCH COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHUD HELP KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOCUS THRU FRIDAY WILL BE TEMPS WITH CWA MAINLY DRY UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND BELOW AVG TEMPS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STILL...HAVE TRENDED TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS IT IS STILL LATE
MAY AND BELIEVE MUCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. MDLS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD WITH AN
UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SAT. BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK...MDLS DIFFER REGARDING PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...BUT AGREE IN
THE OVERALL IDEA. A SFC FNT SHUD BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
FNT WILL SET UP...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW EXCEPT
WHERE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR PRECIP IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

HAVE TEMPS MODERATING NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER THRU
THE WEEK.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAIN DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND IMPACT THE ST. LOUIS METRO
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO KUIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MANY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL
BEFORE 12Z. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX