Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 020207 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
Trimming rain chances across most of area. Continuing chance of
rain mainly southeast New Mexico into the northern Permian Basin.
With loss of daytime heating, most shower and thunderstorm
activity across southwest Texas is dissipating. Modest low level
jet beginning to kick in. Short term models suggest that some elevated
instability will also persist over southeast New Mexico and
northern Permian basin for the next few hours. Low level jet and
elevated instability should allow convection to continue and
possibly expand from southeast New Mexico into the northern
Permian basin through late evening. With very little shear, area
of storms should move slowly eastward. Slow movement suggests
locally heavy rain is possible, especially in parts of southern
Lea County where some training appears to be starting along
outflowboundary from earlier convection.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
See aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm
outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered
thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on
latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention
thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention
however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due
to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is
expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night.
More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.
Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.
Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.
The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 72 98 74 99 / 10 20 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 71 97 73 98 / 20 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 75 100 74 100 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 99 74 101 / 10 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 91 69 90 / 10 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 70 96 72 96 / 30 10 20 20
MARFA TX 61 91 62 91 / 10 20 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 99 74 100 / 10 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 73 99 75 100 / 10 20 10 10
WINK TX 75 103 76 104 / 10 10 10 10