Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to become tempo or prevailing MVFR
ceilings at KMAF, KINK, KHOB, and KFST after 12z this morning and
continue through much of this morning. Prevailing VFR conditions
are expected to return by early this afternoon and through this
evening at all terminals with tempo MVFR visibilities in tsra
expected tonight at KCNM. Winds will generally be southeast at 10
to 20 mph and gusty at times.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough centered over ID this morning extends down across
CA to the Pacific.  This trough will slowly push east as it tries to
dislodge the upper ridge center over the Eastern US.  This will put
the region into SW flow aloft carrying disturbances across the area.

Should be a few degrees cooler today but still well above normal
with highs mainly in the 90s.  As cloudcover increases expect to see
cooler temps with highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday.  Looking at
a long awaited cold front moving into the area Tuesday and may be
reinforced with another one Thursday.  Long range models are giving
highs in the 70s after these fronts move in.

Already have good low level moisture with dewpts in the 60s as of
early morning and the MAF 00z sounding had a PW of 1.3 inches.  So
when disturbances are added in it is not surprising that models are
developing lots of qpf... starting out west this afternoon and
continue through the weekend.  There is the potential for locally
heavy rain this weekend... especially over SE NM on Saturday and
Saturday night with precip spreading east by Sunday.  Have increased
pops Saturday night to likely across all of SE NM.  A Flash Flood
Watch may end up being necessary but after discussing with
neighboring offices will hold off for now.  Will highlight heavy
rain concerns in HWO.  As the upper trough remains to the west look
for decent to good rain chances to continue into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  69  87  69 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       93  66  81  64 /  30  50  60  70
Dryden                         94  73  92  73 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  92  69  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 87  64  77  61 /  30  50  60  60
Hobbs                          89  65  80  62 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          88  57  81  59 /  20  10  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         92  70  88  68 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                           95  69  87  70 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12


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