Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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634
FXUS61 KRLX 161121
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
621 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight. Weak
systems bring some light rain Sunday afternoon into Monday
night. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

Forecast on track.

As of 330 AM Saturday...

Low level warm advection should cut off any remaining mountain
snow showers early this morning, and break up the stratocu
southwest to northeast by late morning. High pressure passes
south of the area today and tonight, as upper level ridging
builds. All of this will allow for sunshine by this afternoon,
and then a mainly clear night tonight. High clouds will start to
increase from the southwest toward dawn Sunday, ahead of an
upper level low that quickly lifts out of northern Mexico while
opening up.

Latest guidance was at or below ongoing highs for today, as the
atmosphere only mixes through h925. Increased ridge valley
differences on lows tonight, in warm advection low level flow
that weakens late. The MAV seemed rather low, even for the
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Warmer, and overall drier weather this weekend. A shortwave will
move through the region on Sunday, creating a chance for
showers. As of now, based on timing of precipitation, have only
rain coded in the forecast, but any change in the timing, could
result in a brief wintry mix across the north on Sunday.
Otherwise, Monday is looking much drier, with another cold front
progged for Tuesday/Tuesday night as low pressure moves east
across Canada. This period is also looking to be drier, with
moisture from southern stream system remaining to our south, and
an overall lack of significant moisture from northern system.
Expecting just a chance of precipitation, mainly across the
higher terrain, with rain and snow showers Tuesday night behind
the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

Unsettled weather for the long term period, with another cold
front slated for late in the period. Bulk of precipitation
during this period will fall as rain, although a transition to
light snow is possible for Friday night behind the front, but,
as often is the case, by the time enough cold air is in place,
moisture will be lacking. Lots of uncertainty exists for the
upcoming weekend and beyond but overall pattern looking quite
active.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

Stratocu was breaking up early this morning, although brief
MVFR morning cu is still possible in northeast WV. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are on tap for today and tonight, as high
pressure passes south of the area.

Southwest surface flow near 10 kts today will become light
south to southwest tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow
aloft today and tonight will become light west to southwest
toward dawn Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR morning cu may or may not occur this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 12/16/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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