Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 210006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL
WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE.  RAISED POPS IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE N.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR
VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE.  SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SWD INTO THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A
BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH
BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM





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