Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES ON TODAY BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONLY THE NAM IS FASTER WITH THE PCPN ARRIVING TO
SOUTHEAST OH BY 00Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A VERY JUICY AIRMASS AND
HOT TEMPERATURES COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TODAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING THE BULK
OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
HAVING CHANCE POPS REACHING SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 06Z THURSDAY
SPREADING EAST INTO 12Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...FRESHER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON PER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES
COULD REACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT SEEMS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED AREAS THAT WILL REACH 100F. WILL HOLD ON THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
IN THE HWO.

TWEAKED THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN A TRANSITION BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
PATTERN WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING
UPWARDS AGAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT PKB...CRW...EKN AND OTHER
RIVER VALLEYS BY 12-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD RESULT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH
HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL HEATING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. TIMING AND LOCATIONS FOR THESE
CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE ARE QUITE DIFFICULT THIS FAR.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED VCTS AT MOST PLACES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 07/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ


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