Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261025
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
625 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses this evening. A cold front crosses Tuesday
morning. High pressure crosses Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and
unsettled latter half of the week. A cold front arrives Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Monday...

Forecast on track.

As of 315 AM Monday...

A weak cold front and upper level short wave trough cross early
today, with nothing more than patchy mid cloud. Weak high
pressure slides by to the southwest of the area this evening.

A somewhat stronger cold front and upper level trough approach
tonight, bringing in the chance for showers from the west
overnight. Limited moisture with lack of inflow ahead of the
front, and overnight timing spell no instability, especially
with a little mid level inversion indicated in the model
soundings. Thus, not expecting any thunder.

Temperatures close to near term guidance blends. The MET was a
high outlier on highs today, especially given its own parent
model h85 temperatures of 11C or less, under 10C for the middle
Ohio Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

An upper trough will provide a cold front and the forcing to act
over limited moisture, to produce light isolated rain showers
Tuesday. Models not bringing to much QPF with this feature. So
confidence runs low. POPs around 30 percent is forecasted for
Tuesday.

Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below
normal temperatures and dry weather Wednesday.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday,
given warm and moist advection in the return flow around the
exiting high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

By Friday, deep southwest flow develops to bring moisture and warmer
temperatures. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each
providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next
weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs.
Models continue with different solutions providing low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 625 AM Monday...

VFR with light wind this period, with a scattered high cu deck
midday and afternoon, broken at times.

An approaching upper level trough and surface cold front will
bring in a more widespread cloud deck at 6-8 kft overnight
tonight. Scattered showers overnight have too low a probability
of directly impacting a particular site to include restrictions
which, if occurred, would be brief.

Light south to southwest surface flow early this morning will
become light west today, and then light and variable to light
south to southwest tonight. Flow aloft will be light, mainly
west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN
overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM



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