Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010725
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
325 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern through early next week. Upper disturbance
crosses tonight. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and
storms. Brief high pressure Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
910 pm update...Boosted PoP across Southern McDowell County for
the next 2 hours as heavy showers and thunderstorms have parked in
the mountains there and are remaining nearly stationary. Showers
should diminish soon though after losing the daytime heating.

645 pm update....A few isolated showers have sprung up across the
mountains...so boosted PoP to low chance for the next couple hours
until just after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
Fairly consistent pattern continues with light flow. Cumulus
clouds popping across the CWA today, with a shower or two showing
up on radar across the southern mountains. Did increase pops some
into the 30 range...going for scattered showers across the ridges,
with isolated showers in a buffer zone to either side of the
mountains. Cumulus should dissipate shortly after sunset with
river valley fog forming again tonight. Tomorrow will be a near
copy of today...with cumulus popping up in the late morning and an
isolated to scattered thundershower for the afternoon. Did not
make any significant changes to high or low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trof pulls into the Great Lakes region on Thursday with
somewhat zonal flow left in its wake heading into the weekend. The
associated surface front sags thru as the deeper moisture pulls
out Thursday afternoon and then loses its identity. So the highest
pops Thursday shift into eastern zones as the day progresses. A
weak area of high pressure builds into the OH Valley on Friday
with just a small chance for showers over southwest VA. Attention
turns to the upper low over TX this weekend as another
amplification of the upper trof over the upper Midwest. It still
looks like the upper trof will manage to pull in some deep
moisture from said upper low to bring back the threat for
shra/tsra later Saturday and especially Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flow becomes slightly more zonal on Saturday, but that ushers in
an upper level low that gets held up over the Great Lakes before
slowly pinwheeling east. In the process of pinwheeling, it will
drive another front through the region Monday. Despite overall
consensus on timing for the 00Z runs (12Z GFS looks like it had
issues)...the run to run consistency has been fairly poor so
haven`t put much weight in the timing and therefore have lower
pops than what models would suggest for this period.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z Wednesday thru 06Z Thursday...
High pressure continues one more day over most of the area...along
with easterly upslope flow for the WV and VA mountains.

Til 13z...East facing slopes of the WV/VA mountains including
BKW...expect VFR ceilings. Elsewhere...VFR mostly clear outside
of MVFR/IFR river valley fog affecting all major TAF sites except
BKW. Expect fog between 08z and 13z...with IFR/LIFR fog primarily
affecting EKN...CRW...PKB.

After 13Z...East facing slopes of WV/VA mountains including BKW
..sct-bkn clouds aoa 8000 feet agl...becoming vfr sct-bkn
4000-6000 feet agl after 17z..with isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm after 18z. Elsewhere...VFR mostly clear becoming sct
stratocu around 5000 feet after 18z...but ceilings aoa 8000 feet
spreading into nern KY...southwestern WV 20-23z.

after 00z til 06z...vfr ceilings mainly aoa 6000 feet spreading
northeast across the area...with scattered showers developing
southwest portions that may lower vsby.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/density of fog tonight may vary a
bit...but overall it looks like fog will be less less dense and
widespread than last night.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JMV


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