Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 172339
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT LONG ABOUT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIFFICULT FORECAST BETWEEN CLOUDS AND FOG. EVEN...COULD NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME RAIN DROPS REACHING THE GROUND 06Z TO
12Z...BUT LEAVING POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR NOW IN THE SOUTH AND
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 850 MB WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS.
EVEN AT SUNSET CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT NOT EVAPORATING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.

HIGHEST DEW POINTS ARE FROM CRW ON SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS.  YET...THAT SAME AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE PATCHY MID DECK
CLOUDS DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AT SUNSET.

WILL TRY TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE/SLOWER ON THE FOG FORMATION IN THE
NORTH AND OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. YET...WITH ONLY A 10 DEG TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREAD IN THE SOUTH AT SUNSET...MAY BE A NIGHT WITH BOTH FOG
FORMING AND CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET PATTERN WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA.  ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO BE
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF MAINE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CREEPING NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TO THE SOUTH GETS PUSHED EAST AND
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY.
THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR SUNSET...DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST AND TEMP/DEW POINT THE LOWEST
FROM THE CRW TO EKN VCNTY ON SOUTH...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS.

YET...MOISTURE AT 925 TO 850 MBS STILL NOT DRYING UP AND IS MARGINAL
FOR CLOUDS.  SO ANOTHER CLOUD VERSUS FOG ISSUE OVERNIGHT.  MAY EVEN
BE A NIGHT WHERE WE GET BOTH. COULD NOT EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTH OR MOUNTAIN WITH
THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.  BUT NEAR 00Z
THURSDAY...HAVE POPS AT 10 PERCENT.

WILL BE SLOWER FORMING FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND CKB VCNTY...AND
MAYBE A HOUR SLOWER IN THE SOUTH COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT/24 HOURS
AGO.

COULD SEE SOME STRATUS CEILINGS AROUND 1 TO 2 THSD FT LINGER 13Z TO
15Z THURSDAY IN THE CRW VCNTY.

MAINLY SCATTERED CU AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL AFTER 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLOUDS AND LESS FOG FOR THE 06Z TO 13Z
TIME FRAME.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 09/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JR
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB









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