Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT
RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS
OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. CLEARING
IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE.

MVFR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIFICALLY CKB WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING BY
08Z. EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ



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