Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242355
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN
MUCH COOLER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN THE W UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NEAR TERMS.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A
LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE NT.  A COLD FRONT ROLLING THROUGH FRI WILL BRING
MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST IS WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE W EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS OPPOSED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  AFTER
A MIDDAY LULL IN THUNDER ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD TOP
WARMING....THE COLD FRONT CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
CREATE A SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA BUT MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CLEARING WILL COMMENCE FROM THE W BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z SAT.

LIGHT N TO NE SFC FLOW AT THE START WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VEERING THROUGH E AND SE.  S TO SE FLOW FIRST
THING FRI MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN W TO SW AND RATHER GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS 19Z HTS...20Z CRW AND PKB...21Z CKB
AND BKW AND 22-23Z EKN.  LIGHT S FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND BE MODERATE S TO SW FRI MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFT TO MODERATE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...JUST
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE SFC WIND SHIFT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY
VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM






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