Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 011909
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N
KY INTO W WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR
AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH
WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. THE STRATUS WILL CONT TO MIX OUT
INTO BKN CU FIELD AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.

FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN
ACROSS SW VA...AND THE S COAL FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING
MORE ENGERGIZED WITH INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF
A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN
LACK OF GOOD HEATING DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION.

MUCH OF THE ACTION WANES THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST ISOLATED SHRA
THREAT ACROSS S WV AND SW VA. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE FG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM. BL WINDS LOOK TO RELAX QUITE A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THINK BEST FG
POTENTIAL IS SE OH AND N WV. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS REFORMS
ACROSS S ZONES AND WITH A LIGHT NE LLVL WIND...BKW SHOULD FG DOWN
AS WELL.

FOR THURSDAY...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE AGAIN FOR THE STRATUS TO MIX
OUT S OF THE BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW AND LOW INVERSION.
WILL WATCH FOR DECAYING MCS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FEELING IS MUCH
OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH EXTENT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY...PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS S ZONES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS SOUTH
WITH CURRENT THINKING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY
INCREASES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL AND CAN`T RULE OUT
SCATTERED THUNDER AND POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TO EARLY FOR ANY
POSSIBLE WATCHES RIGHT NOW AND KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN
THE HWO FOR NOW.  THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE RAIN
WITH IT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL DRY US OUT
FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. SEMI-DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE BEGININNING OF THE
WORK WEAK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MIDWEEK. STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

MVFR LOW STRATUS SCT TO BKN AT TIMES REMAINDER OF AFTN WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA. AN AREA OF SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS MAY MAKE A RUN OUT OF KY INTO SW VA AND S
WV...AFFECTING KBKW. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE
THIS EVENING. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT WHO FOGS AND WHO GETS THE
STRATUS. CURRENT THINKING IS N TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR OR
WORSE FG WITH S TERMINALS LOW STRATUS. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD BRING
KBKW DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT.

FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO A PERIOD OF MORNING HZ...WITH SCT
TO BKN MVFR/LOW END VFR CU AFTER 16Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPATIAL EXTENT OF FOG AND OR STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.