Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 222113
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
21Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES...UPDATED PRECIPITATION TO BE A BIT MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE MOST CURRENT RUC
AND HRRR MODEL RUNS.

OLD BELOW...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN H5 RIDGE COULD BRING SOME IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RADAR INDICATED AT 18Z...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG INTERSTATE 64
FROM HTS TO CRW AND SOUTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH PER HOUR.
WITH NEARLY SATURATED TERRAIN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD. DECREASED COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SATURDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER WX REGIME BEGINS TO SET IN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. IT WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT HOT AS THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT REMAINS
WELL W OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER MUGGY
THOUGH...TYPICAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
21Z UPDATE...
UPDATED CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

OLD BELOW...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND ALONG
A LINE FROM CRW TO BKW AT 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BKW
DIRECTLY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNDER STORMS. PCPN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH VERY HIGH HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...EVIDENT IN SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS AT TIMES.
CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY
5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 22Z. YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ/LS







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