Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. COOL FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HI RES
MODELS TO BETTER CAPTURE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN OH/KY AS
THEY DRIFT NW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH DEEP TROPICAL LIKE
MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS BY
MID MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY DAWN BEING CONFINED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
MONDAY...SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AFTER THE
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK...WILL GIVE RISE TO A THREAT OF A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DRYING ALOFT. SO ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WIDELY SCATTERED SIDE.
THE NAM IS AN TYPICAL OUTLIER WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN TURN WITH THE POPS AND QPF. GOING WITH THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY DAWN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PATTERN DESPITE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT RUNNING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW MODEST SPEED SHEAR
TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SOME SEGMENTS. BUT THE
MOISTURE REMAINS TROPICAL LIKE...OVER 1.75 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH MUCH OF IT USABLE. ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE
INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THIS COULD ADD TO A GUST THREAT.

HOWEVER...PER SPC...HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH...SO THAT
COULD HINDER THE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC ROLLING WITH A SEE TEXT AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TOWARDS THE 90 DEGREE MARK
FOR THE LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY.

KEEP LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE
USUAL TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH
DAY...PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY VERSUS
THURSDAY WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE. BY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM OP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ONLY A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF ROUGHLY SIX OR SO HOURS.
INCREASED POPS TO MID/HIGH CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SUCH.
BEYOND THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE EC AND OP GFS THEN DIVERGE ON
THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A CLEAN SWEEP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EURO HANGING THE FRONT UP NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT. DID ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AIRMASS TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT ALSO CONTINUED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS PER LATEST EC
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH SHOWERS AND A STORM UNTIL AROUND
14Z...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WV. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MVFR STRATUS...IFR STRATUS 10Z TO 13Z...WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
FOG WILL GENERALLY BE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
13Z OVER THE MOST PRONE RIVERS AND VALLEYS....ESPECIALLY EKN.

AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET 18Z TO 22Z...AND CONTINUING TO 06Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS.

AFTER 00Z...VFR BECOMING MVFR CEILINGS 06Z TO 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR RIVER
AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW THIS MORNING...HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING TIME OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
TIMING OF LIFTING OF STRATUS DECK INTO CU DECK LATER THIS MORNING
COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV







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