Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 061609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON PER
NEW GUIDANCE...BUT STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONG FROM THE WEST TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C TODAY...AND WARMING UP TO AROUND
MINUS 5C LATER TONIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SNOW COVER...SOME DIURNAL
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT A COLD NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY USED BC TEMPS
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER WHICH SHOULD STILL BE HANGING
ON DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH.  THIS
EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE.  STILL DO
SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR
AND THE MARCH SUN.  BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS
WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
16Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SNOW PACK TO LIFT
INTO MAINLY A SCT 2000-3000 FT AGL LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS VERY
MOISTURE STARVED FOR PRECIP. THUS...VFR MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THRU THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW INTO TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE
ADDITION TO FLOW IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN WELL BELOW FREEZING. ALL TRIBUTARIES OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE
RECEDED. EXPECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
POMEROY TO CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW RISE TODAY. BACKWATER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL THE RIVER RECEDES BELOW
FLOOD OR ACTION STAGES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TRM/JMV
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ

HYDROLOGY...JS










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