Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231035
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weekend. Weak disturbance dropping through today. Front
stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Still have some mid to high clouds across the southern half of
the CWA, however no radar echos with this and have removed POPs
for the remainder of the overnight hours. Weak ripple aloft may
kick off an isolated thundershower this afternoon, but expect this
to me more miss than hit. These should come to an end late
evening, with just some clouds lingering overnight.

Afternoon temperatures expected to top 90 degrees across much of
the lowlands today. Combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, heat
indices will climb above 100 degrees. No changes planned to
ongoing heat advisory. CKB area is not included...and by blending
in ECMWF MOS to previous forecast, still coming up just short of
advisory criteria there. Regardless, a good day to take
water/shade breaks if spending time outside.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance suggest that a cold front will stall north of the area on
Sunday before lifting north as a warm front later Sunday night.
Then, the area will remain under a warm sector of a disturbance
crossing east across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. An
approaching cold front will reach OH valley and WV. Kept likely
PoPs with this second cold front passing Monday through Monday
night.

Humidity will stay high with dewpoints around 70 degrees. High
temperatures on Sunday should range the mid 90s lowlands to the
mid 70s higher elevations. This conditions could bring heat index
numbers into the triple digits once again Sunday afternoon.

Went closer to the super blend numbers fog temperatures through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have
kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours. The
front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level
drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances
confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front
dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early morning fog will clear 12Z-14Z. Cannot rule out an isolated
thundershower this afternoon, but not enough coverage to include
in TAFs at this point. Have some dense river valley fog reforming
tonight.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could need
an amendment for shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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