Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENING IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT. THE 500
MB EAST COAST RIDGE IS REALLY NOT BREAKING DOWN TODAY.

THE ONE 500 MB VORT MAX WAS LIFTING DUE NORTH WITH THE SHOWERS IN
WESTERN OHIO AT 08Z. INITIALLY THOUGHT THE MID DECK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT DAWN WITH MAYBE
A LIGHT SHOWER SOMEWHERE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...EVEN THOSE
CLOUDS SEEM TO BE EVAPORATING. THOUGHT IT WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FURTHER EAST WITH PATCHES OF FOG UNTIL DAWN.

WITH NO GOOD BOUNDARIES ETC...THE ONLY PLACE WE HAVE POPS REACHING
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE POCAHONTAS COUNTY...DUE TO THE
LIGHT UPSLOPE SSE FLOW.  OTHERWISE HAVE MOSTLY AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY...SO ANY CELLS FORMING SHOULD MOVE NNE.

HELD ONTO 30 POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY
COUNTIES...WITH 20 POP FURTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND A COLD
FRONT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT FRONT APPROACHES...WE ARE
STUCK IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND HARD TO TIME UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES PASSING BY. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS.

FOR THE COLD FRONT...WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NAM/SREF WHICH IS ALSO
DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. THIS HAS
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING...TRYING TO
SAG ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW STRONG STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE. THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING AND REDUCE STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS TO HWO. DESPITE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THINK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THESE DOWNPOURS COULD START TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCAL STREAMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OFF TO OUR SE...DO NOT ENVISION A CLEAN
SWEEP WITH THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OR SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FEATURE A RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
DAMPENING S/W TROF. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE FCST. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HARD TO GRASP ONTO ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AND RUN WITH IT.

THE WEAK STEERING FLOW VEERS FROM S TO SSW AFTER 18Z TODAY.

VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLYA ROUND 12Z.
HAVE MID DECK AT 8 TO 12 THSD FT BKN SPREADING N 12Z TO 15Z.
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SSE INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CAUSE ONE RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY COULD CAUSE ANY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A STORM EVEN FROM CRW
TO CKB CORRIDOR.

CU FORMS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AGL 14Z TO 16Z...THEN MOSTLY 3
TO 4 THSD FT CEILINGS AFTER 16Z.  AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL WITH LAYERS ABOVE.

VALLEY FOG COVERAGE 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUDS AND
IF SPOTS GET WET FROM A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR IN ELKINS FOR NOW...AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP BRIEFLY LOWER THAN FORECAST IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB/26



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