Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221451
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1051 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front exits the eastern mountains today. High
pressure builds behind the front, then low pressure and
unsettled conditions return as early as Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1050 AM Monday...

Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with
other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights
clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in
the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as
a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the
pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on
the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into
the 60s and 70s this afternoon.

Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of
an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how
far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio
River with the best chance of showers in the mountains.

As of 300 AM Monday...

Satellite and radar images, and sfc obs suggested that the cold
front was located along southeast OH at 3 AM, moving slowly east.
The showers and storms activity along the cold front have
decreased considerably overnight. Kept previous PoPs as they
denoted a decreasing trend and have lingering showers over the
east. The latest is supported by the high resolution model
solutions.

High pressure builds behind the cold front to bring clear skies
and dry air mass to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Not too many changes in the overall forecast. Weak low pressure
will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing
remaining well to our east. I did bring in a chance for showers
with highest PoP in the mountains, but guidance is in good
agreement with keep any heavy rain in Central Virginia.

Deep upper trough digs over the region on Wednesday. Strong
surface low tracks up the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes,
dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday night. This
will spread widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms into
our area, but with relatively low PWAT values we are not
expecting any issues with flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Start the period with deep upper trough overhead and then
sliding east of the area Thursday night. There will be a chance
for a few showers on Thursday, but brief ridging start to build
in later in the day. The pattern turns zonal thereafter and several
waves move through the flow that will keep conditions unsettled
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1050 AM Monday...

No significant changes this morning. MVFR or better cigs
continue for most terminals, but clearing line is now
approaching the Ohio River. Tried to time scattering/lifting
cigs based on satellite trends. Relaxing pressure gradient will
allow winds to go light to calm tonight, although a gust or two
this afternoon on the order of 10 to 15 kts is possible. With
high pressure just to our north, light winds, and antecedent
moisture from rain, expect some valley fog to develop.
Introduced into TAFs starting between 23/0400Z and 23/0600Z,
although guidance is still inconsistent on coverage and
intensity of fog. Will address more in the 22/1800Z issuance.

As of 630 AM Monday...

Radar images and sfc obs show a weakening cold front moving
east of the OH River attm. Plenty of MVFR clouds are in place,
but will begin to dissipate by early afternoon as dry and cool
air mass filters behind the cold front. Sfc obs at PKB, HTS and
CRW have veer from the northwest behind the front. Expect some
clearing this afternoon and evening.

By late tonight, weak boundary layered winds, clearing and
enough low level moisture will allow for areas of dense fog
during the predawn hours Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be lower than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Dense fog is possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK/DTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/DTC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ/DTC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.