Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
AXGM70 PGUM 040118
DGTGUM

GUZ001>004-180200
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ161-PMZ171-172-PMZ181-180200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-MAJURO-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1115 AM CHST THU FEB 4 2016

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING ACROSS MICRONESIA...
...STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR DROUGHT ACROSS THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MICRONESIA ARE CURRENTLY IN OR
ENTERING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF
4 LEVELS). IN ADDITION...ONE OF THE STRONGEST EL NINOS IN HISTORY
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
FOR THE PACIFIC REGION. ANALYSIS OF THIS EL NINO EVENT COUPLED WITH
CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE
EL NINO PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF
2016...THEN WEAKEN TO NEUTRAL BY THE SUMMER MONTHS AND POSSIBLY
TREND TOWARD LA NINA CONDITIONS LATE IN THE YEAR.

INCREASINGLY DRY WEATHER IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS MICRONESIA. DROUGHT
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MARIANA
ISLANDS...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...BOTH YAP AND CHUUK STATES...AND
THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT WILL LIKLEY BECOME DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR POHNPEI STATE AND POSSIBLE KOSRAE STATE. THERE COULD
BE A SLIGHTLY WET MONTH OR TWO FROM NOW THROUGH SPRING 2016...BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AS 2016 PROGRESSES.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS....

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS AND
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER
SUPPLIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS
HIGHLY ENCOURAGED. DRYING AND YELLOWING OF FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION
WILL BECOME MUCH WORSE AND GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE.

GUAM...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER
SUPPLIES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED.
DRYING AND YELLOWING OF FOOD CROPS AND VEGETATION WILL BECOME WORSE
AND THE NUMBER OF GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

CHUUK STATE...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN CHUUK STATE WITH
VERY LOW RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING MONTHS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF WENO. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF WENO MAY RECEIVE A
FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF CHUUK STATE DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR AND BABELDAOB...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 3 MONTHS WAS VERY LOW...AND RAINFALL WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED.
GRASS FIRES...ESPECIALLY ON BABELDAOB...WILL INCREASE WITH THE
DRYNESS. SOME YELLOWING OF VEGETATION ON THE ROCK ISLANDS COULD
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF PALAU...
RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING MONTHS AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WORSE...ESPECIALLY FOR SONSOROL. WATER
SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID
THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR
EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF
PALAU. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND
FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND
FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS.

FOR YAP STATE....

YAP...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD ACROSS YAP. RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WAS BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. GRASS FIRES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE DRYNESS. YELLOWING OF VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.

OUTLYING ISLANDS OF YAP STATE...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD AT NGULU...ULITHI...FAIS...
FARAULEP...WOLEAI AND SATAWAL. TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AT BEST AND RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING
MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE
NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD
BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF
YAP STATE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND
FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND
FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE.

FOR THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS DECLARED A
STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MANY ATOLLS HAVE
REQUESTED ASSISTANCE.

FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
AREAS NEAR WOTJE...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS
WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE COMING
MONTHS. DROUGHT WILL BECOME WORSE WITH VERY SPOTTY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. WATER SUPPLIES ARE AT RISK AND CONSERVATION
MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS.
WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

FOR MAJURO AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...
AREAS NEAR MAJURO...JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE SOME
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS IN THE COMING MONTHS BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE AT RISK AND
CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND
CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY.

SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE
HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE IF DAMAGES TO PLANTS AND FRUITS ARE IRREVERSIBLE.
WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
WEEKS AND MONTHS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE EL NINO PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS EL NINO WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE SUMMER AND POSSIBLY LA
NINA CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH SPRING 2016 BEFORE RAINFALL PATTERNS GRADUALLY
RETURN TO NORMAL. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY WET MONTH OR TWO FROM
NOW THROUGH THE SUMMER OF 2016...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER THAN
NORMAL AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                     OCT    NOV    DEC   DEC NORMAL  JAN   JAN NORMAL

KOROR WSO            6.24   7.86   4.60  12.33       2.64     11.20
PELELIU              4.30  11.04   2.00  11.90       1.90     10.70
YAP WSO              5.29   3.31   4.93   9.28       2.23      7.30
ULITHI               6.28   3.24   7.44   7.12       1.29      6.23
WOLEAI               2.22   2.58   5.55  11.45       0.34     10.68
CHUUK                6.09   7.46   8.87  11.02       6.40      8.58
FANANU               3.90   5.27   2.09      M       2.59         M
GUAM INTL AIRPORT   14.26   5.96   3.77   5.98       2.62      4.96
ROTA                15.45   5.54   4.93              3.04      5.28
TINIAN              30.76   2.81   6.89              2.14      6.20
SAIPAN              21.00   2.94   4.03   4.21       1.36      3.56
KWAJALEIN           11.71   9.98   3.90   7.94       2.02      5.12
JALUIT               4.51   4.35   8.62  11.01       4.57     10.66
WOTJE                8.60   2.57   1.84   7.70       TRACE     2.50
MAJURO              10.52   5.33   6.93  11.50       1.11      8.28

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL
CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA. THE DROUGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MICRONESIA IN THE COMING MONTHS. IN
GENERAL...THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 2016.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST OF THE COMMONWEALTH.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBE AND CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED IN GOOD WORKING ORDER. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE VERY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO AT LEAST.

GUAM...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A QUARTER INCH UP TO A HALF INCH OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE VERY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
MONTH OR TWO.

CHUUK STATE...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS CHUUK
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. AREAS NEAR WENO...FANANU AND
ULUL WILL BE DRIER THAN MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND MAY RECEIVE ONLY
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF WENO COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

KOROR...
SHORT-TERM COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS VARIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE
NEXT 10 DAYS AS WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO
NEAR ONE INCE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

OUTLYING ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF PALAU...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
MONTHS. VERY LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS SUCH
AS SONSOROL...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH
FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

YAP STATE...
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS
ACROSS YAP STATE. SPECIFIC ISLANDS AFFECTED INCLUDE YAP ALONG WITH
NGULU...ULITHI...FAIS...FARAULEP...WOLEAI AND SATAWAL. SHORT TERM
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER
INCH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES AND AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE
TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.

NORTHERN AREAS NEAR WOTJE...UTIRIK...KWAJALEIN...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK
ATOLLS WILL RECEIVE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN SPOTTY TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AREAS NEAR MAJURO...JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP ATOLLS WILL BE VERY DRY
AND RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL FROM LIGHT TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS DRY WEATHER SITUATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18...2016 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/
...DROUGHT STATEMENT EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND
CHUUK STATE...

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.