Text Products for ESF Issued by CAR

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
355 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the eleventh Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for
2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine.
This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the
two week period of April 11th through April 25th, 2024.

Ice jam threat is over for the 2024 season on all river basins.

The potential for open water flooding is Above Normal across
Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and
into Eastern Aroostook County including the Aroostook River Basin.
The potential for open water flooding is Normal across the North
Woods, St. John, Allagash & Fish River basins in Northern Maine.

...LAKE ICE THICKNESS...
Lake ice is extremely dangerous, do not venture onto the ice. For
more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service
website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-
tips.html

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

El Nino has continued to weaken although its influence has remained
as an active subtropical jet stream has continued to advance
moisture laden low systems into the Northeast. This active trend
looks to continue for awhile longer but with some shifting in the
low track pattern.

A moderate strength El Nino remained as of 08 April 2024 with a +1.2
Celsius Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly observed in the Nino
3.4 region. The latest three month average from January-March 2024
was +1.5 Celsius. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were
cooling most notably in the far eastern Pacific and were expanding
across the equatorial Pacific.

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been negative and
been promoting blocking and troughing is forecast to turn more
neutral along with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Meanwhile the
Pacific North American (PNA) is forecast to become more negative
which would promote more troughing in the western CONUS. This setup
would tend to favor weak ridging across the southeastern U.S. and
mean troughing from the central into the western CONUS. Overall,
this setup favors a southwesterly flow of milder air into the
Northeast with a low track generally favored to be west of Maine.

The official National Weather Service 6 to 14 day Outlook for 16-24
April 2024 leans towards likely above normal temperatures and near
normal to above normal precipitation.

$$

Sinko
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
