Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service CLEVELAND OH
1059 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2017

...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH JANUARY
19TH...

FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.This
is the first flood potential outlook of the 2017 season. Flood
outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and
water equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on
them, along with the expected conditions during the next two
weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
The region has come out of fall with minor drought conditions.
In December the precipitation amounts returned to normal, which
has helped recharge some of the low flowing streams. The weather
pattern for the first week of January has supported a polar
airmass over the Great Lake, which produced on and off lake
effect snowfall. The snowbelt of northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania have seen snow accumulations up to a foot of fairly
dry snow. For areas outside of the snowbelt, conditions have
remained fairly dry with only a light dusting of snow. The
transition to a warmer and wetter weather pattern is expected
over the next two weeks which could lead to minor flooding
concerns through the middle of January.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin with
measurable snowpack as of Monday morning, January 9th:

...FRENCH CREEK / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 to 12 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Up to 0.75 inches.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Normal.
.CREEK ICE...........Patchy.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 2 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.

...MAHONING RIVER / OHIO RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........0 to 0.5 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Trace
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 2 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.

...GRAND RIVER / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........2 to 4 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.4 inches.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........Patchy.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 2 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.


...CHAGRIN RIVER / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........0 to 6 inches.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.3 inches.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........Patchy.
.GROUND FROST........Less than 2 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Partially frozen.


...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
The weather pattern will become more progressive with
warmer and wetter storm systems projected to move over the
region. This pattern could support minor to possibly moderate
river flooding conditions across the region. The pattern is
expected to remain active into the middle of January.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
Flood risk during the next two weeks is near to slightly above
normal. The impacts from any projected flooding at this time is
expected to be minimal due to limited snowpack contributions. The
warmer and wetter pattern will prevent an notable accumulations
of the snowpack for the next two weeks. This will help limit
additional water storage for later rain events.


...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across the region can be found on
the internet at www.weather.gov/cle. Since conditions can change,
please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.

$$

SJ


$$



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