Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FGUS73 KFSD 281421
ESFFSD
SDC005-011-027-035-061-067-079-083-087-099-101-111-125-127-135-
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-NEC043-051-
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-281200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
918 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:FLOYD RIVER
SHELDON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  11   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
ALTON               12.0   16.0   18.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LE MARS             20.0   21.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST BRANCH FLOYD
STRUBLE             14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLOYD RIVER
MERRILL             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JAMES               26.0   30.0   34.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
SPENCER             10.0   14.0   16.0 :  13   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:OCHEYEDAN RIVER
SPENCER              8.0    9.5   10.5 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
LINN GROVE          18.0   19.5   21.0 :  14   14    5   <5   <5   <5
CHEROKEE            17.0   21.0   24.0 :   8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CORRECTIONVILLE     19.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK DITCH
HORNICK             20.0   22.0   27.0 :  14    5   12   <5   <5   <5
:PERRY CREEK
SIOUX CITY          24.0   26.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
BROOKINGS            9.0   10.5   12.0 :  20   14   11    7    5   <5
DELL RAPIDS         12.0   14.0   15.0 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
SIOUX FALLS 60TH    12.0   14.0   16.0 :   8    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SKUNK CREEK
SIOUX FALLS         11.5   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
SIOUX FALLS NORTH   16.0   18.0   31.0 :  10    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SPLIT ROCK CREEK
CORSON               8.5   11.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROCK RIVER
LUVERNE             10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ROCK RAPIDS         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ROCK VALLEY         16.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
HAWARDEN            15.0   20.0   23.0 :  20   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
AKRON               16.0   18.0   20.0 :  19   11    6    9   <5   <5
SIOUX CITY          99.0  105.0  108.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES RIVER
HURON               11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FORESTBURG          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MITCHELL            17.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FIRESTEEL CREEK
MOUNT VERNON         8.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:JAMES RIVER
SCOTLAND            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
YANKTON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WEST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER               9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:EAST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER              12.0   14.0   16.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION RIVER
DAVIS               11.0   13.0   15.0 :   8    5    6   <5   <5   <5
WAKONDA             14.0   15.5   17.0 :  11   <5    8   <5    7   <5
VERMILLION          21.0   22.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL            14.0   15.0   16.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:FLOYD RIVER
SHELDON               5.6    5.6    5.6    6.2    7.8   12.5   13.8
ALTON                 5.7    5.7    5.7    6.0    7.4   10.4   14.0
LE MARS              11.4   11.4   11.4   12.0   12.8   16.9   17.5
:WEST BRANCH FLOYD
STRUBLE               4.6    4.6    4.6    5.6    6.6    9.0   10.0
:FLOYD RIVER
MERRILL               1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    2.9    5.4    6.7
JAMES                10.4   10.4   10.4   10.5   11.6   14.0   15.4
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
SPENCER               5.3    5.3    5.3    6.3    8.6   10.6   12.7
:OCHEYEDAN RIVER
SPENCER               2.3    2.3    2.3    2.7    3.5    5.5    8.2
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
LINN GROVE           16.1   16.1   16.1   16.5   17.2   18.3   19.6
CHEROKEE              7.7    7.7    7.7    8.7   11.2   15.4   18.8
CORRECTIONVILLE       7.9    7.9    7.9    8.6   10.8   14.3   18.7
:WEST FORK DITCH
HORNICK              14.3   14.3   14.3   14.3   16.0   22.6   25.9
:PERRY CREEK
SIOUX CITY            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.7    8.4    9.3    9.4
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
BROOKINGS             3.6    3.6    3.6    4.2    6.5   10.7   12.0
DELL RAPIDS           4.7    4.7    4.7    5.2    8.6   11.3   13.5
SIOUX FALLS 60TH      2.7    2.7    2.7    3.1    6.9   11.4   12.9
:SKUNK CREEK
SIOUX FALLS           4.0    4.0    4.0    4.5    5.5    7.4   10.0
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
SIOUX FALLS NORTH     6.9    6.9    6.9    7.6   10.7   15.9   17.3
:SPLIT ROCK CREEK
CORSON                2.0    2.0    2.1    3.0    4.9    6.4    8.2
:ROCK RIVER
LUVERNE               3.6    3.6    3.6    3.9    4.5    4.6    6.6
ROCK RAPIDS           7.6    7.6    7.7    8.5    9.9   11.5   12.2
ROCK VALLEY           5.0    5.0    5.0    6.3    8.2   11.1   13.0
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
HAWARDEN              8.3    8.3    8.3   10.3   14.5   16.5   18.0
AKRON                 8.3    8.3    8.3   10.1   14.7   17.4   18.8
SIOUX CITY           77.0   77.0   77.0   77.0   77.0   86.9   89.4
:JAMES RIVER
HURON                10.1   10.1   10.1   10.1   10.1   10.5   10.8
FORESTBURG            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    8.7   10.2
MITCHELL             13.2   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.3   14.5   16.1
:FIRESTEEL CREEK
MOUNT VERNON          2.2    2.2    2.2    2.3    3.2    5.2    7.2
:JAMES RIVER
SCOTLAND              6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.3    8.9   11.1
YANKTON               4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.6    7.1    9.1
:WEST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER                0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    2.0    3.1    5.0
:EAST FORK VERMILLION RIVER
PARKER                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    5.7    9.4   11.6
:VERMILLION RIVER
DAVIS                 3.2    3.2    3.2    3.9    7.0   10.3   13.4
WAKONDA               4.7    4.7    4.7    5.4    9.0   14.8   17.3
VERMILLION            4.7    4.7    4.7    5.2    8.8   15.3   19.5
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL              7.0    7.0    7.0    7.8    9.5   10.8   11.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.3    6.7    8.9   14.0

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
MARSHALL              7.0    6.9    6.9    6.9    6.9    6.8    6.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
JACKSON               4.8    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/FSD FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

$$



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