Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
607 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM APRIL 19TH THROUGH THE 23RD SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 21ST THROUGH THE 27TH
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND
AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA
AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE TWO PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE
NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD EXPECT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED BY NWS NEW
YORK NY FOR THE SEASON.

$$



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