Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  10    7    7   <5   <5   <5
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  25   18   11    7   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  15   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   50.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :   6    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :   9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   45.0   49.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  11    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   50.0   60.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  11   11   <5    6   <5   <5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  14   10    9    7   <5   <5
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  16   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  11  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   25.0   34.0 :  10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  12    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              11.9   12.1   12.9   14.4   16.8   23.0   27.5
Paradise            367.2  367.9  369.4  373.2  380.1  386.4  388.9
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 3.7    7.6   10.9   14.9   22.6   29.4   32.0
:Ohio River
Evansville           14.3   15.2   17.0   21.3   28.7   35.0   37.1
Golconda             29.6   29.6   29.7   30.7   32.7   35.8   37.1
Mount Vernon         23.5   23.7   24.0   25.0   28.4   33.6   35.5
Newburgh Dam         13.7   15.5   18.0   23.2   32.1   36.8   41.6
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.1   20.0   29.5   33.0   37.3
Shawneetown          15.9   16.6   18.5   22.8   27.4   33.4   36.3
J.T. Myers Dam       14.5   15.7   18.9   23.8   29.2   35.7   38.0
:Patoka River
Princeton             6.1    6.6    8.2    9.8   15.8   18.1   18.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.0    5.8    6.6    7.9    9.8   16.7   19.0
:Wabash River
New Harmony           2.8    3.5    6.6    9.8   12.6   16.6   18.8
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          1.8    2.1    3.4    5.2    6.5    7.8    8.7
:Current River
Doniphan              0.8    0.8    0.9    0.9    1.2    2.1    4.0
Van Buren             3.7    3.7    3.7    3.8    4.2    4.9    6.5
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  1.2    1.2    2.0    3.6    4.3    4.9    7.2
Patterson             5.3    6.7    7.7    8.3    9.6   11.2   12.6
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             7.0    7.0    7.0    9.9   17.3   19.9   22.9
Murphysboro           3.3    3.3    4.7    9.8   17.4   23.8   27.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/01/2015 - 11/30/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              10.6   10.5   10.3   10.3   10.2   10.2   10.1
Paradise            364.8  364.8  364.5  364.4  364.3  364.3  364.3
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.2
:Ohio River
Evansville           13.5   13.4   13.3   13.2   13.2   13.2   13.1
Golconda             29.5   29.5   29.5   29.5   29.5   29.5   29.5
Mount Vernon         23.3   23.2   23.2   23.2   23.2   23.2   23.2
Newburgh Dam         12.9   12.9   12.7   12.6   12.6   12.5   12.5
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          15.3   15.3   15.2   15.1   15.1   15.1   15.1
J.T. Myers Dam       12.8   12.7   12.6   12.4   12.3   12.3   12.3
:Patoka River
Princeton             5.9    4.7    4.0    3.5    3.2    2.9    2.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony           2.1    2.0    1.7    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.2
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             5.3    4.8    4.3    4.0    3.6    3.5    3.3
Murphysboro           1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.


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