Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...THERE IS A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
MARYLAND.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
THIS SPRING...PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NO
SNOWPACK OR RIVER ICE REMAIN.  THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN IN
ELEVATIONS BELOW APPROXIMATELY 2000 FEET.  GRASSES AND TREE FOLIAGE
ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP AND SOON HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
SOIL CONDITIONS AND HELP REDUCE THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK.  THE FLOOD
THREAT LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMAL.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS...WITH
SUMMER POOLS LEVELS BEING REACHED. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR
NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. STREAMFLOWS ARE
NEAR NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS MOISTURE IS NORMAL.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
TELECONNECTION SIGNALS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
IN EARLY SPRING FOR THE AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
LIFTING NORTHWARD...STORMS SYSTEMS CONTAINING GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE.

THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN
EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND FALL...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A
NOTABLE ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS
SPRING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SPRING ARE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

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