Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 051918
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-192130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 1

THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM JANUARY 5 TO 19, 2017.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES OF
LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE
WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. LITTLE SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE HSA. THIS IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS OUR
MOST NORTHERN BASINS. ELSEWHERE, THE LACK OF SNOW IS ABOUT NORMAL.
DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL INTEREST TAB) OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS TAB).

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE IF ANY ICE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE HSA.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS
LONG-TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH JANUARY 19, 2017:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...BELOW NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL
SNOW COVER...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
RIVER ICE...BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL
GROUND WATER...BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



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