Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 10 2016

...OREGON WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF FEBRUARY 10TH 2016...

THE WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 2016 IS NEAR-
AVERAGE FOR MOST OF OREGON...ALTHOUGH SOME BASINS IN WESTERN OREGON
AND FAR-NORTHEAST OREGON ARE PREDICTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE.
NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BASIN FORECASTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS SINCE SEASONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AND
RAINFALL TYPICALLY OCCURS THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL.

APRIL-SEPTEMBER RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS FOR OREGON RANGE FROM ABOUT
65 TO 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LOWEST VALUES ARE FOR BASINS IN
NORTHEASTERN OREGON...FAR-EASTERN OREGON...AND WEST-CENTRAL OREGON.
THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE FOR SOUTHERN OREGON BASINS...WHERE DROUGHT
IMPACTS THE LAST TWO YEARS HAVE BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED.

OREGON SNOWPACK AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY 2016 IS MUCH IMPROVED OVER
CONDITIONS SEEN IN FEBRUARY 2015. BASIN SNOWPACK AROUND THE STATE
RANGES FROM 95 TO 140 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

REFER TO THE SECTIONS BELOW AND THE LINKS PROVIDED FOR DETAILS
REGARDING SNOWPACK...PRECIPITATION...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR INDIVIDUAL BASINS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE OUTLOOKS INDICATES THAT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF FEBRUARY...WITH NEAR-AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. THE INFLUENCE OF THE ONGOING STRONG EL NINO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FEBRUARY AND MARCH...AND THEN
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TO ENSO-NEUTRAL BY THE SUMMER.
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE SPRING AND SUMMER.
THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OREGON AND NEAR-
NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEASONAL OUTLOOKS AND EL NINO CONDITIONS...VISIT THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

PRECIPITATION THUS FAR THIS WINTER HAS ALLEVIATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF OREGON. NOTE THAT SEVERAL COUNTIES ACROSS OREGON HAVE
ONGOING DROUGHT ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS THE PAST TWO YEARS. THE
PRIMARY DROUGHT IMPACT AT THIS POINT IS RESERVOIR STORAGE...AND HOW
THE REST OF WINTER AND SPRING PLAYS OUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
RESERVOIR STORAGE TO MEET WATER SUPPLY NEEDS THIS SUMMER. FOR THE
LATEST DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT DROUGHT.GOV AND
WWW.OREGON.GOV/OWRD/PAGES/WR/DROUGHT.ASPX.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON A MONTHLY BASIS THROUGH JUNE 2016.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY MARCH 3RD.

============================================================
SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON

AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY...SEASONAL SNOWPACK IS ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR
OREGON...RANGING FROM 95 TO 140 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THE LOWEST
VALUES ARE FOR BASINS IN NORTHEASTERN OREGON...FAR-EASTERN
OREGON...AND WEST-CENTRAL OREGON. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE IN SOUTHERN
OREGON BASINS. AFTER MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN DECEMBER...
ACCUMULATION IN JANUARY WAS MORE MODEST BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION TYPICALLY CONTINUES THROUGH MARCH...AND SNOWPACK
CONDITIONS IN EARLY APRIL WILL BE KEY TO SPRING AND SUMMER WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS.

REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE SNOWPACK DETAILS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/SNOW/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WPS/PORTAL/NRCS/MAIN/OR/SNOW/

============================================================
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS OREGON

2016 WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION THUS FAR IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
FOR OREGON. SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS...OCTOBER 1 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 9...RANGE FROM 90 TO 140 PERCENT.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR OREGON ARE NEAR-NORMAL SO FAR THIS WINTER.
OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WERE 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE. NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW-AVERAGE. DECEMBER
TEMPERATURES WERE AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OREGON AND 1 TO 3
DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. JANUARY TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY/WY_SUMMARY/WY_SUMMARY.PHP

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC
(KLAMATH BASIN ONLY) WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_RESOURCES_UPDATE.PHP

============================================================
RESERVOIRS

RESERVOIR STORAGE IS 10 TO 40 PERCENT OF CAPACITY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OREGON. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS OF PROJECTS THAT ARE
RUNNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE...BUT OVERALL STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW
CAPACITY. RESERVOIR STORAGE DURING THE COMING SPRING AND SUMMER
DEPENDS ON SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...ALONG WITH SPRING RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE STATE.

RESERVOIR DATA IS PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE...THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION...AHD THE US ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE RESERVOIR INFORMATION:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/BASIN.HTML
WWW.USBR.GOV/PN/HYDROMET/SELECT.HTML
WWW.NWD-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/NWP/TEACUP/WILLAMETTE/

============================================================
CURRENT AND FORECAST STREAMFLOW

OBSERVED STREAMFLOW FOR JANUARY WAS NEAR-AVERAGE EXCEPT ABOVE-
AVERAGE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. SOIL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE STATE HAS
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS.

VISIT WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON OBSERVED STREAMFLOW.

FORECAST STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER (APRIL THROUGH
SEPTEMBER) RANGE FROM 70 TO 105 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR OREGON
BASINS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST OREGON BASINS AND THE
LOWEST IN EASTERN OREGON BASINS. FORECASTS HAVE OVERALL TRENDED DOWN
ABOUT 5 PERCENT SINCE EARLY JANUARY.

THE FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES...WHICH IS A GOOD
INDEX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IS 97% OF AVERAGE
FOR THE APRIL-SEPTEMBER PERIOD...AN INCREASE OF 4% FROM THE
FORECAST IN EARLY JANUARY.


VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON BASIN-SCALE WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS:

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WS/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/

BRYANT
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