Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 051400
ESPCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT

                      WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR

                THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                           May 5, 2016


BASIN CONDITIONS (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF MAY 1:
   *NOTE: SNOW IS % OF MEDIAN

 SUBBASIN                  APR    OCT-APR  MAY   APR
                          PRECIP  PRECIP   SNOW* STRMFLW
----------------------    ------  -------  ----  --------
   UPPER COLORADO          110      100     110     90
   GUNNISON                115      100      95     95
   DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL       90      105      85     65
   SAN JUAN                105      100      75     70
   YAMPA/WHITE             125      100     110    115


RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF APRIL 30:
                             C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % of     % of    APR 30  Usable
                          Storage  Average  CapacityAvg Storage   Capacity
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    380.6|    122|     78||  311.8|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      7.8|    101|     85||    7.7|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     76.7|    126|     79||   60.9|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     47.0|     99|     71||   47.7|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    239.3|    112|     94||  213.6|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     67.0|    105|     46||   63.9|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|     41.4|    220|     96||   18.8|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     70.1|    112|     69||   62.6|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     18.2|     99|     55||   18.3|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     71.0|    116|     67||   61.2|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    570.7|    125|     69||  457.1|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    111.1|     99|     95||  111.8|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     16.5|     99|     94||   16.7|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      3.3|     51|     20||    6.4|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     68.0|    102|     82||   66.6|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    299.1|     93|     78||  323.0|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|    104.9|    142|     84||   74.0|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1491.0|    110|     88|| 1361.0|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     27.5|    114|     69||   24.1|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  11013.5|     64|     45||17122.8|   24322.0|


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
Developed:                    May 1 2016

Yampa/White Basins
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Yampa River
  Stagecoach Rsvr, abv     Apr-Jul     21    91     26     22   20.0   18.5     23
  Stagecoach Rsvr, abv     May-Jul   12.7    79   17.3   14.0   12.0   10.2   16.0
  Steamboat Springs        Apr-Jul    295   113    340    305    280    255    260
  Steamboat Springs        May-Jul    240   109    285    250    225    200    220
Elk River
  Milner, nr               Apr-Jul    350   109    405    365    335    305    320
  Milner, nr               May-Jul    300   103    355    315    285    255    290
Elkhead Ck
  Long Gulch, abv, Hayden  Apr-Jul     73   100     85     76     69     63     73
  Long Gulch, abv, Hayden  May-Jul     52   104     64     55     48     42     50
Yampa River
  Maybell, nr              Apr-Jul    950   102   1100   1010    910    815    935
  Maybell, nr              May-Jul    750    97    900    810    710    615    775
Little Snake River
  Slater, nr               Apr-Jul    144    92    174    152    133    120    156
  Slater, nr               May-Jul    122    88    152    130    111     98    138
  Dixon, nr                Apr-Jul    310    90    365    330    280    250    345
  Dixon, nr                May-Jul    255    86    310    275    225    198    295
  Lily, nr                 Apr-Jul    325    94    390    345    295    260    345
  Lily, nr                 May-Jul    265    91    330    285    235    199    290
Yampa River
  Deerlodge Park           Apr-Jul   1250   101   1500   1300   1170   1050   1240
  Deerlodge Park           May-Jul   1000    98   1250   1050    920    800   1020
White River
  Meeker, nr               Apr-Jul    230    82    290    240    220    200    280
  Meeker, nr               May-Jul    195    80    255    205    186    165    245
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    245    88    310    255    235    215    280
  Watson, nr               May-Jul    205    87    270    215    195    173    235

Upper Colorado, Above Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Lake Granby, Granby, nr  Apr-Jul    195    89    230    205    180    160    220
  Lake Granby, Granby, nr  May-Jul    180    88    215    190    165    145    205
Willow Ck
  Willow Ck Res, Granby,   Apr-Jul     52   111     65     60     48     40     47
  Willow Ck Res, Granby,   May-Jul     47   109     60     55     43     35     43
Fraser River
  Winter Park              Apr-Jul     21   108     25     22   19.5   18.0   19.4
  Winter Park              May-Jul     20   108     24     21   18.5   17.0   18.6
Williams Fork River
  Williams Fork Res, Pars  Apr-Jul     95    99    117    102     89     82     96
  Williams Fork Res, Pars  May-Jul     88    98    110     95     82     75     90
Blue River
  Dillon Res               Apr-Jul    170   104    200    178    153    140    163
  Dillon Res               May-Jul    160   105    190    168    143    130    153
  Green Mtn Res            Apr-Jul    270    98    330    290    255    230    275
  Green Mtn Res            May-Jul    250    98    310    270    235    210    255
Muddy Ck
  Wolford Mountain Reserv  Apr-Jul     55   102     72     62     50     42     54
  Wolford Mountain Reserv  May-Jul     48   104     65     55     43     35     46
Colorado River
  Kremmling, nr            Apr-Jul    850    99   1040    910    810    730    860
  Kremmling, nr            May-Jul    770    98    960    830    730    650    785
Eagle River
  Gypsum, blo              Apr-Jul    305    91    400    330    280    250    335
  Gypsum, blo              May-Jul    285    90    380    310    260    230    315
Colorado River
  Dotsero, nr              Apr-Jul   1340    96   1680   1430   1250   1120   1400
  Dotsero, nr              May-Jul   1220    95   1560   1310   1130   1000   1280
Frying Pan River
  Ruedi Res, Basalt, nr    Apr-Jul    125    90    172    132    112    102    139
  Ruedi Res, Basalt, nr    May-Jul    118    91    165    125    105     95    130
Roaring Fork River
  Glenwood Springs         Apr-Jul    575    83    745    615    530    495    690
  Glenwood Springs         May-Jul    530    83    700    570    485    450    640
Colorado River
  Glenwood Springs, blo    Apr-Jul   1940    92   2420   2120   1820   1670   2110
  Glenwood Springs, blo    May-Jul   1770    92   2250   1950   1650   1500   1930
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul   2140    91   2690   2340   1990   1790   2360
  Cameo, nr                May-Jul   1950    91   2500   2150   1800   1600   2150
Plateau Ck
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul    115    93    160    135     92     80    124
  Cameo, nr                May-Jul     95    91    140    115     72     60    104

Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Taylor River
  Taylor Park Res          Apr-Jul     82    83     99     87     77     71     99
  Taylor Park Res          May-Jul     73    81     90     78     68     62     90
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    124    80    154    132    118    109    155
  Almont                   May-Jul    110    78    140    118    104     95    141
East River
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    130    71    157    141    118    112    182
  Almont                   May-Jul    113    68    140    124    101     95    166
Gunnison River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul    270    73    325    285    255    245    370
  Gunnison, nr             May-Jul    235    70    290    250    220    210    335
Tomichi Ck
  Gunnison                 Apr-Jul     54    73     74     61     49     42     74
  Gunnison                 May-Jul     45    73     65     52     40     33     62
Lake Fork River
  Gateview                 Apr-Jul    114    93    143    124    107     93    123
  Gateview                 May-Jul    106    91    135    116     99     85    116
Gunnison River
  Blue Mesa Res            Apr-Jul    525    78    660    565    505    455    675
  Blue Mesa Res            May-Jul    450    75    585    490    430    380    600
  Morrow Point Res         Apr-Jul    570    77    700    610    550    495    740
  Morrow Point Res         May-Jul    490    75    620    530    470    415    650
  Crystal Res              Apr-Jul    630    75    765    675    605    560    835
  Crystal Res              May-Jul    540    73    675    585    515    470    735
Muddy Ck
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Mar-Jun     80    83     96     85     73     69     96
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  May-Jun     52    75     68     57     45     41     69
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Apr-Jul     79    81     98     87     72     66     97
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  May-Jul     56    75     74     62     49     43     75
NF Gunnison River
  Somerset, nr             Apr-Jul    230    78    280    245    210    198    295
  Somerset, nr             May-Jul    187    78    235    200    166    155    240
Surface Ck
  Cedaredge                Apr-Jul   14.8    88   19.3   17.3   12.8   11.3   16.8
  Cedaredge                May-Jul   11.5    82   16.0   14.0    9.5    8.0   14.1
Uncompahgre River
  Ridgway Res              Apr-Jul     93    92    111     98     79     74    101
  Ridgway Res              May-Jul     84    92    102     89     70     65     91
  Colona                   Apr-Jul    125    91    160    137    107     90    137
  Colona                   May-Jul    110    92    145    122     92     75    120
  Delta                    Apr-Jul    104    92    134    114     91     79    113
  Delta                    May-Jul     75    80    105     85     62     50     94
Gunnison River
  Grand Junction, nr       Apr-Jul   1200    81   1450   1280   1110    995   1480
  Grand Junction, nr       May-Jul    980    79   1230   1060    890    780   1240

Dolores Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Dolores River
  Dolores                  Apr-Jul    197    80    230    215    184    172    245
  Dolores                  May-Jul    160    80    195    177    147    135    200
  Mcphee Res               Apr-Jul    215    73    260    240    200    185    295
  Mcphee Res               May-Jul    170    77    215    195    156    140    220
San Miguel River
  Placerville, nr          Apr-Jul    118    92    138    126    109     98    128
  Placerville, nr          May-Jul    105    93    125    113     96     85    113
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    410    73    490    450    385    355    565
  Cisco, nr                May-Jul    325    78    405    365    300    270    415

Upper Colorado, Confluence
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   3800    86   4730   4080   3530   3230   4440
  Cisco, nr                May-Jul   3270    85   4200   3550   3000   2700   3860

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    188    87    205    196    180    166    215
  Pagosa Springs           May-Jul    152    84    170    160    144    130    180
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    295    78    330    310    280    260    380
  Carracas, nr             May-Jul    240    80    275    255    225    205    300
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     45    83     56     50     41     38     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  May-Jul     38    84     49     43     34     31     45
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     51    78     60     54     46     41     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  May-Jul     43    80     52     46     38     33     54
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    160    76    190    166    151    138    210
  Arboles, nr              May-Jul    120    78    150    126    111     98    153
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    155    80    190    166    142    122    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  May-Jul    130    76    165    141    117     97    171
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    520    71    620    545    490    440    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   May-Jul    400    71    500    425    370    320    565
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     40    73     51     45     35     32     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   May-Jul     35    71     46     40     30     27     49
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    315    76    395    340    290    260    415
  Durango                  May-Jul    270    74    350    295    245    215    365
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    765    70    935    810    715    645   1100
  Farmington               May-Jul    610    69    780    655    560    490    880
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul   16.9    73     21     19   15.4   13.9     23
  Hesperus                 May-Jul   14.0    77   18.0   16.0   12.5   11.0   18.2
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    765    70    955    815    710    640   1100
  Bluff, nr                May-Jul    610    71    800    660    555    485    855
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     27    87     32     29     24     22     31
  Mancos, nr               May-Jul     21    88     26     23   18.0   16.0     24

Lake Powell
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Colorado River
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul   5500    77   7110   6060   5060   4210   7160
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  May-Jul   4690    77   6300   5250   4250   3400   6100

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/fml



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