Extended Streamflow Prediction
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
June 2, 2016

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAY PRECIP     OCT-MAY PREC    JUN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              80             85                -
ANIMAS                       135            100                -
LOWER SAN JUAN               150            135                -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         APR FLOW       OCT-APR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               75%             85%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JUNE 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      110
VALLECITO                   120
LEMON                       110

TOTAL                       110


San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    189    88    200    194    184    180    215
  Pagosa Springs           Jun-Jul     82    85     95     87     77     73     96
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    295    78    315    305    285    280    380
  Carracas, nr             Jun-Jul    129    82    148    137    120    115    158
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     45    83     50     48     42     40     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Jun-Jul     21    91     26     24   18.0   16.0     23
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     50    77     56     53     47     45     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Jun-Jul     26    87     32     29     23     21     30
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    166    79    178    173    161    158    210
  Arboles, nr              Jun-Jul     60    81     72     67     55     52     74
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    172    89    191    185    167    159    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Jun-Jul     87    88    106    100     82     74     99
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    545    74    595    585    525    515    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Jun-Jul    215    74    265    255    196    187    290
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     39    71     46     42     36     34     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Jun-Jul     22    81     29     25   19.0   17.0     27
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    330    80    370    365    320    310    415
  Durango                  Jun-Jul    178    81    220    215    166    158    220
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    785    71    845    815    760    740   1100
  Farmington               Jun-Jul    345    73    405    375    320    300    470
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul   17.4    76   19.4   18.4   16.9   16.4     23
  Hesperus                 Jun-Jul    8.0    94   10.0    9.0    7.5    7.0    8.5
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    780    71    850    815    765    750   1100
  Bluff, nr                Jun-Jul    330    73    400    365    315    300    450
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     27    87     29     28     27     26     31
  Mancos, nr               Jun-Jul   10.0    96   12.0   11.0    9.7    9.0   10.4

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G. Smith



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