Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 101036
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Training Area Burn...US Army
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front stalls across southeast Virginia today, then lifts
back north as a warm front late this afternoon into tonight. The
best chance of showers today will be late this afternoon into
tonight. Winds will remain light and variable.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of a shower in the late morning and early
                    afternoon. Scattered showers possible after
                    2 pm.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent AM; 40-50 percent PM.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2400-2900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............87  89  82  84  86  88  89  91  92
Weather cov.........    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type........    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................73  75  76  77  78  78  78  78  77
RH..................90  84  85  79  76  76  76  79  82
20 FT wind dir......N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4
Transp wind dir.....N   NE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.....3   6   7   7   6   6   7   8   9
LVORI...............6   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................3   8   15  17  18  18  20  23  26
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  20  20  20  20  40  40  40  50
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2   6   10  13  13  15  16  18  19

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 15 mph, becoming east around 18
                    mph late.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............93  94  95  94  93  91  90  89  88  89  89  90
Weather cov.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................75  73  71  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  69  69
RH..................87  93  97  100 100 100 97  97  97  97  100 100
20 FT wind dir......E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......1.8 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Transp wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.....10  12  12  10  9   8   7   6   7   10  15  18
LVORI...............4   6   7   9   9   9   8   8   8   7   8   5
ADI.................24  5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   5   7   12
Chc of pcpn (%).....40  40  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1000....16  11  5   5   4   3   3   3   4   5   7   8

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely. A
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............90     92     92     93     94     92
Weather cov.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp................69     69     69     70     73     73
RH..................100    100    100    93     84     87
20 ft wind..........NE 3   NE 2   NE 3   NE 4   E 4    E 4
20 ft wind gust.....5      5      10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)........500    500    1000   1300   1500   1600
Transport wind......E 18   NE 16  E 18   E 17   E 14   NE 12
LVORI...............5      5      5      4      4      4
ADI.................12     12     23     26     23     19
Chc of pcpn (%).....60     60     60     60     60     60
Haines index........2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/1000....8      7      16     20     18     15

$$
Forecaster...McGEE
Requested by...Chris McClelland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717021.0/AKQ
.EMAIL christopher.s.mcclelland.civ@mail.mil


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