Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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642
FNUS73 KAPX 291929
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROBERTS RD RX...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON APRIL 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AT THE BURN SITE.
INCREASED MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SFC DEW POINTS FALLING A BIT
FURTHER AND RESULTANT HUMIDITIES WERE FLIRTING WITH THE LOWER
30S. THE FLAT BURN AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND
INTACT...BUT LOOKING AT THE TOPOGRAPHY...THE BURN SITE LOOKS
LIKE IT IS IN A SHALLOW VALLEYS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN
ON BOTH SIDES. IT WOULDN`T BE TOO FAR FETCHED TO SEE THIS WIND
MAYBE TRYING TO TREND A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF EAST...MORE
UPVALLEY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 57.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5800 FT
                    AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44  44
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............55  54
RH..............37  40
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15
HAINES INDEX....2   2
SMOKE DISP......400 400

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160429.ROBER.01/APX



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