Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 151342
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for South River Road Piles Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
842 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on December 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Numerous snow showers will continue to impact the
burn location, especially through early afternoon. Additional snow
accumulation of around an inch is expected. Some lingering
lighter snow showers into tonight, with snow-free weather
returning toward Saturday morning. South winds this morning will
quickly veer to a westerly direction by early this afternoon as a
cold front crosses the area. West-northwest winds tonight become
northeast on Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous snow showers
                    early in the morning, then periods of snow
                    showers until late afternoon. Numerous snow
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........21 at ignition...Max 25.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming west
                    5 to 7 mph with occasional gusts up to 16 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1300-3000
                    ft AGL increasing to 4500-5900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph increasing to 23 to 26 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Vent rate...........Good /500 at ignition. Max...excellent /1500/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  86  83  85  86  88  85
Weather cov.....PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS NUM NUM
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............21  23  24  24  24  23  22
RH..............81  77  74  74  74  77  77
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 4.5 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.6
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  18  21  23  24  25  26
Haines index....3   4   4   4   3   3   3
VRate/100.......5   8   12  13  14  14  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous snow
                    showers.
Temperature.........Min 12.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......3800-5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 26 mph decreasing to around 15
                    mph early in the morning.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (500-1500).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82  79  77  76  74  72  70  68  68  69  69  70
Weather cov.....NUM SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............21  20  19  19  18  17  17  16  15  15  14  13
RH..............81  81  80  80  80  80  80  80  84  80  84  87
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.26  26  26  25  25  25  25  24  23  21  18  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......15  15  14  14  13  13  13  12  11  9   8   5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 19.
RH..................Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2700-3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 10 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to good (100-400).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     70     68     67     65     56
Weather cov.....SCTTRD
Weather type....SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............13     12     14     16     19     18
RH..............84     87     84     77     67     70
20 ft wind......NW 2   N 2    N 3    NE 3   NE 3   E 3
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   3100   3000   3100   3100   2900
Transport wind..NW 10  N 6    N 6    N 3    N 2    E 3
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      3
VRate/100.......4      2      2      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Mike Boguth
Requested by...Holly Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1720014.0/APX


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