Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 301807 CCA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FEW CORRECTIONS TO DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA OF THE SAR. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA
BY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU


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