Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 181434
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
734 AM MST WED JAN 18 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON JANUARY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES, PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLOUD FREE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE WARMEST READINGS.
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  FURTHER ALOFT,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.  THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE POOR DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH IS COMMON IN
WINTER WHEN THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND, TO CAUSE SMOKE DISPERSION TO REMAIN
POOR ALL DAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000, THEN BELOW 1000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900, THEN 2000-2500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1100, THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

01/18-07 13  0  0 24 48 WSW  7  7 5 1   E 13  1309   W  6  6248 P
01/18-08 13  0  0 24 50 WSW  7  7 5 1   E 14  1168 WNW  6  6078 P
01/18-09 10  0  0 29 43 WSW  7  7 5 1   E 10  1288 WNW  6  7004 P
01/18-10  5  0  0 36 35 WSW  6  8 5 1  SE  8  1407  NW  7  7987 P
01/18-11 11  0  0 42 29 WSW  6  8 5 1 SSE  5  1526  NW  7  9026 P
01/18-12 10  0  0 47 26 WSW  6  8 5 1 SSW  7  2278  NW  6 10430 P
01/18-13  9  0  0 50 25 WSW  6  8 5 1   W  9  3030   N  3  9824 P
01/18-14  7  0  0 50 26  SW  6  8 5 1 NNW 12  3782   N  2  7208 P
01/18-15  6  0  0 49 28  SW  6  8 5 1 NNW 14  3172 NNW  3 10505 P
01/18-16  6  0  0 47 30 WSW  6  8 4 1 NNW 16  2563 WNW  6 12089 P
01/18-17  7  0  0 44 33 WSW  6  8 4 1   N 18  1954   W  7 11961 P
01/18-18  7  0  0 42 35 WSW  6  8 4 1   N 18  1584   W  7  9921 P
01/18-19  7  0  0 40 36 WSW  7  8 5 1   N 20  1213 WNW  7  7775 P
01/18-20  8  0  0 38 37 WSW  7  9 5 1 NNE 20   843 WNW  8  5522 P
01/18-21  9  0  0 38 36 WSW  7  9 5 1 NNE 18   974 WNW  8  6671 P
01/18-22  9  0  0 37 35 WSW  8 14 4 1 NNE 17  1106  NW  8  7897 P
01/18-23 10  0  0 37 35 WSW  8 15 4 1 NNE 15  1238  NW  8  9200 P
01/19-00 10  0  0 37 34 WSW  8 14 4 1   N 15  1174  NW  8  8368 P
01/19-01 10  0  0 37 34 WSW  8 14 4 1   N 15  1109  NW  8  7575 P
01/19-02 10  0  0 37 34 WSW  8 14 4 1   N 14  1045  NW  8  6821 P
01/19-03  9  0  0 37 34 WSW  8 14 4 1   N 14   980  NW  8  6469 P
01/19-04  9  0  0 37 33 WSW  8 14 4 1   N 14   916  NW  7  5674 P
01/19-05  9  0  0 37 32 WSW  8 13 4 1   N 14   851  NW  7  4932 P
01/19-06 11  0  0 27 47 WSW  9 14 4 1 NNW 13   959 WNW  6  5266 P
01/19-07 10  0  0 26 49 WSW  9 15 4 1  NW 13  1067   W  6  5534 P
01/19-08  9  0  0 27 48  SW  9 15 4 1  NW 13  1176   W  6  5735 P
01/19-09 10  0  0 31 45  SW  8 13 4 1  NW 12  1215   W  5  4745 P
01/19-10 11  0  0 37 41  SW  6  6 5 1 WNW 12  1254 WSW  3  3678 P
01/19-11 12  1  0 43 36  SW  5  5 5 1 WNW 12  1293 WSW  2  2535 P
01/19-12 13  1  0 47 34 SSW  3  3 4 1   W  9  1865  SW  2  3679 P
01/19-13 14  1  0 49 33   S  3  3 4 1 WSW  8  2437 SSW  2  4838 P
01/19-14 16  1  0 49 34   S  3  3 3 1  SW  7  3009   S  2  6011 P
01/19-15 17  1  0 47 37   S  3  3 3 1  SW  9  2564  SW  2  4510 P
01/19-16 18  1  0 43 43  SW  5  5 3 1 SSW 13  2120 WNW  2  3222 P
01/19-17 19  4  1 40 48  SW  5  5 3 1   S 15  1675   CALM  2146 P
01/19-18 20  4  1 37 55  SW  5  5 3 1   S 17  1405  NW  3  3622 P
01/19-19 21  4  1 34 62  SW  6  6 2 1   S 20  1135   W  5  4398 P
01/19-20 21  4  1 33 64  SW  6  6 2 1   S 21   864 WSW  6  4472 P
01/19-21 26  4  1 32 64 WSW  6  6 2 1   S 23   841 WSW  6  4209 P
01/19-22 35  4  1 32 60 WSW  7  7 2 1 SSW 25   817   W  6  3955 P
01/19-23 40 11  2 32 58 WSW  7  7 2 1 SSW 28   793   W  6  3708 P
01/20-00 45 11  2 32 59 WSW  7  7 2 1 SSW 28   851   W  6  3882 P
01/20-01 55 11  2 31 63 WSW  6  6 3 1 SSW 26   909   W  5  4044 P
01/20-02 60 11  2 31 63 WSW  6  6 3 1 SSW 26   967   W  5  4192 P
01/20-03 59 11  2 30 63 WSW  6  6 3 1  SW 23  1013   W  6  4621 P
01/20-04 57 11  2 29 63 WSW  7  7 3 1  SW 20  1059   W  6  5071 P
01/20-05 71 37 15 28 63   W  7  7 3 1  SW 16  1105   W  6  5542 P
01/20-06 71 37 15 27 66   W  7  7 3 1  SW 15  1277   W  6  6996 P
01/20-07 71 37 15 26 70 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 14  1449   W  7  8609 P
01/20-08 71 37 15 26 71 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1621   W  7 10382 P
01/20-09 71 37 15 28 67   W  6  6 3 1   W 10  3110   W  9 24683 P
01/20-10 71 37 15 31 60   W  5  5 3 1 WNW  9  4599 WNW 10 43547  F
01/20-11 71 44 21 35 52   W  5  5 3 1  NW  8  6087 WNW 13 66973   G
01/20-12 71 44 21 37 49 WNW  5  5 3 1  NW 10  6446 WNW 13 72316   G
01/20-13 71 44 21 38 48  NW  5  5 3 1  NW 13  6805 WNW 13 77814   G
01/20-14 71 44 21 38 48 NNW  5  5 3 1  NW 15  7164 WNW 14 83468   G
01/20-15 71 44 21 36 51  NW  5  5 3 1  NW 17  6002 WNW 14 73489   G
01/20-16 71 44 21 34 54   W  3  3 3 1  NW 20  4840   W 15 62133   G
01/20-17 71  3  1 32 56   W  3  3 3 1  NW 22  3678   W 15 49398  F
01/20-18 71  3  1 30 57   W  3  3 3 1 WNW 16  2948   W 14 35619 P
01/20-19 71  3  1 29 56 WSW  3  3 3 1   W 12  2217   W 13 23807 P
01/20-20 71  3  1 29 53 WSW  3  3 3 1   W  7  1487   W 10 13962 P
01/20-21 71  3  1 28 54 WSW  3  3 3 1   W  9  1342   W 12 12910 P
01/20-22 71  3  1 27 56 WSW  5  5 3 1 WSW 10  1196   W 12 11790 P
01/20-23 32  1  0 26 57 WSW  5  5 3 1  SW 13  1051   W 12 10602 P
01/21-00 32  1  0 25 58 WSW  5  5 3 1  SW 15  1217   W 10 10935 P
01/21-01 32  1  0 24 59 WSW  6  6 3 1  SW 16  1384   W  9 10900 P
01/21-02 32  1  0 23 60 WSW  6  6 3 1  SW 17  1550   W  8 10498 P
01/21-03 32  1  0 23 59 WSW  6  6 3 1  SW 20  1576   W  7  9128 P
01/21-04 32  1  0 23 59 WSW  5  5 3 1 WSW 22  1602   W  6  7707 P
01/21-05 39  4  1 23 60 WSW  5  5 3 1   W 24  1628   W  5  6234 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...TOM MCCOLLUM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700508.0/BOU



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