Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 230859
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 82 SKI RESORT...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW YORK COULD PRODUCE A
STRAY LATE DAY SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE WEATHER OVER THE BURN AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY
WARM FOR EARLY AUTUMN. RH/S WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROUGHT BACK TO ALMOST EXACTLY
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
MAY BE ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST 6 TO 8
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............24  26  25  23  22  21  18  17
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................67  70  72  75  78  78  77  77
RH..................70  68  61  55  50  50  52  50
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......5   3   3   6   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.5 3.8 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.5 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   12  12  12  10  12  13  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).............13        8         24        44
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75        70        65        62
RH..................55        68        78        87
20 FT WIND..........W 7G10    NW 6      NW 5      NW 3G5
MIX HGT (FT)........3400      BLW100    BLW100    BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 10     NW 3      W 3       NW 3
LAL.................1         1         1         1
HAINES INDEX........4         4         3         3

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4300-4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............75  83  87  80  66  59  52  40  33  29  21  18
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  59  60  62  63  65  67  68  70  72  72  72
RH..................93  96  93  84  81  75  70  68  63  57  55  53
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   2   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5       5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   7   7   7   7
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/DANGELO
REQUESTED BY...NEIL ITLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160923.SGL82.01/CTP



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