Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 241510
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Kerr Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
910 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 MDT on May 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will be on the increase over the next 36 hours as a deep
west-southwest flow develops as an upper ridge weakens overhead.
Winds will pick up out of the west to southwest today and remain
that direction for the next couple of days with critical fire
weather conditions occurring Thursday and Friday. Some wind relief
starts Saturday and into early next week.  There will also be a
moisture surge early next week with some showers and thunderstorms
possible.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........8-10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 to 12 mph early in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL increasing to 12300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (226400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      2      2      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............66     74     79     80
RH..............22     16     10     8
20 ft wind......W 4    W 9    W 12   W 12
20 ft wind gust.10     15     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   12300  12300  12300
Transport wind..W 10   W 18   W 21   W 22
Haines index....3      5      6      6
Vent Rate.......VYGD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 48
Max humidity........32-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph becoming downslope 2 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........8      8      8      2      2      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............77     70     63     59     55     51
RH..............10     13     17     21     25     30
20 ft wind......W 11   W 10   W 8    W 4    W 4    W 3
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     10     10     10
Haines index....6      5      5      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....around 75.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-southwest winds 5 to 10 mph increasing to
                    15 to 22 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL increasing to 11500 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 14 mph increasing to west 35 to
                    36 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (246200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (347300 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         5         12        12
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        62        70        75
RH..............30        17        11        9
20 FT wind......W 8G15    W 10G20   W 18G30   SW 21G35
Mix hgt (ft)....8600      8600      11500     11500
Transport wind..SW 8      SW 23     W 35      W 35
Haines index....4         4         5         6
Vent Rate.......EXNT      EXNT      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710013.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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