Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 232202
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Gutzler Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
402 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1600 MDT on July 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
As high pressure over the region shifts southeastward, monsoonal
moisture is expected to increase on Monday. A weather disturbance
will pass from the Four Corners Monday northeastward to the
Gutzler Fire area on Tuesday, allowing for an uptick of shower and
thunderstorm activity. This thunderstorm activity should mostly
remain south of the fire site Monday, with gusty winds from the
south the most likely impact from these storms. An isolated
thunderstorm will still be possible Monday afternoon. Wetting
rain is anticipated on Tuesday at the fire site.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....70-75 F.
Min humidity........24-29%.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope winds 3 to 5 MPH in the morning becoming
                    northwest 5 mph after noon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000-44000 knot-ft)...then becoming fair
                    after noon.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL, increasing to 7900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%). Scattered thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Scattered showers.
Min temperature.....50-55 F.
Max humidity........67-72%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 MPH, becoming southwest after
                    midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000-29000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL, decreasing to 400 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....South 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....66-71 F.
Min humidity........39-44%.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope winds 3 to 5 MPH in the morning becoming
                    west 7-10 mph after noon.  Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000-46000 knot-ft)...then becoming fair
                    around 1300.
Haines Index........3 very low.
LAL.................5.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 MPH.

$$
Forecaster...Julie Malingowski
Requested by...Ryan Hughes
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713158.1/GJT
.EMAIL erichughes@fs.fed.us



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