Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FNUS73 KGRR 031259
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR PINES POINT UNITS B   C...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
859 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO TODAY MOVING THROUGH THE
U.P. THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SKIES TRENDING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 19 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-4300
                    FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-8700 FT AGL...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE DAY
                    DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-1700 (POOR TO EXCELLENT).

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........17     22     27     42     63
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............53     61     63     64     62
RH..............57     40     38     38     41
20 FT WIND......SW 11  SW 15  SW 15  SW 16  SW 17
20 FT GUST......15     20     20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....0-200 (POOR TO FAIR).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 16 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 21 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 31 MPH
                    LATE IN THE DAY.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....300-1000 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT).

$$
FORECASTER...DUKE
REQUESTED BY...KORY BORGMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160503.PINES.01/GRR



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