Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FNUS72 KGSP 252114
FWSGSP

Spot Forecast for Pickney Branch Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure will lift from the southern plains to the Midwest and
push a band of moisture toward the southern Appalachians tonight and
Sunday. Deep moisture and persistent southwesterly flow will set up
over the southeast Sunday through Tuesday with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms expected. Drier air should return by the
middle of next week.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late in the evening. A chance of
                    showers late in the evening...then showers
                    likely after midnight. Patchy fog late.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4100-6000 ft AGL...decreasing to 800-2400 ft
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (46800-75400
                    knot-ft)...decreasing to poor to fair
                    (7000-23700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................46...decreasing to 9 until early morning...then
                    increasing to 20 after midnight...decreasing to
                    9 late.
Stability class.....4.
Pcpn amount.........0.41 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........3500...decreasing to 500.0.
Visibility (SM).....7...decreasing to 5 late.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.48.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  75  78  81  85  88  91  93  96  96  97  97
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  70  68  65  64  62  61  60  60  59  58  57
Dewpoint........52  53  53  53  53  53  53  53  54  54  54  54
RH..............50  54  59  65  69  73  75  78  80  83  86  90
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 5.9 5.7 4.1 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  13  12  10  13  16  18  17  14  12
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   3   4   5   5
ADI.............46  10  10  8   8   7   8   11  21  19  9   8
VRate kt-ft/100074  75  74  47  24  7   11  17  23  21  17  13
Ceiling (hft)...45  45  45  45  45  45  35  27  18  20  6.0 5.0
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  9   8   7   7   5   5   5
Sfc pres (in)...851 851 851 851 852 853 852 851 851 850 849 848

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning. Showers likely. A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon...then a
                    chance of thunderstorms late.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2900 ft AGL...increasing to 3800-4800 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 13 mph...increasing to south 17
                    to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (8600-47600 knot-ft)...increasing
                    to excellent (71900 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................9...increasing to 25 late in the morning...then
                    increasing further to 44 then 65...decreasing to 54.
Stability class.....4.
Pcpn amount.........0.34 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........600.0...decreasing to 500.0 early in the
                    morning...then increasing to 600.0 in the late
                    morning and early afternoon...decreasing to
                    500.0 early in the afternoon...increasing to
                    1700...increasing to 2400 late.
Visibility (SM).....2.00...increasing to 5 late in the
                    morning...then decreasing to 4 early in the
                    afternoon.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.44.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........97  96  96  95  95  94  93  93  92  90  87  85
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Temp............56  56  57  60  63  65  67  69  70  70  70  70
Dewpoint........54  53  53  54  54  54  55  55  55  56  56  56
RH..............92  88  87  80  73  69  65  62  60  59  60  61
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   13  18  23  24  23  22  21  18  17
LVORI...........6   4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   12  12  25  44  62  67  66  65  62  55  52
VRate kt-ft/100010  9   9   23  48  77  86  88  88  83  78  72
Ceiling (hft)...6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 17  17  24
Visibility (sm).3   3   2.0 2.0 2.0 5   5   4   4
Sfc pres (in)...848 849 849 849 850 850 850 850 850 848 846 844

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and a chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening...then a chance of rain after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......3300-4600 ft AGL...decreasing to 500-2300 ft
                    AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (23000-64900
                    knot-ft)...decreasing to poor (3100 knot-ft)
                    late in the evening.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................48...decreasing to 7.
Stability class.....5.
Pcpn amount.........0.17 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........2400...increasing to 3000 early in the
                    evening...then decreasing to 1700 late in the
                    evening...decreasing to 1000 after
                    midnight...decreasing to 300.0.
Visibility (SM).....MISSING.
Sfc pressure (in)...28.43.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82  80  85  85  86  86  87  89  90  91  92  93
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RN
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Temp............69  68  68  66  64  62  61  59  58  58  58  57
Dewpoint........56  56  55  55  55  55  55  55  54  55  55  55
RH..............62  65  63  68  72  77  81  84  86  89  90  93
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5       5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 4.5 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  13  12  10  9   8   7   7   7   7
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   6
ADI.............48  10  6   6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100065  59  53  37  23  11  8   5   3   5   6   7
Ceiling (hft)...24  24  30  30  40  17  17  10  3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Visibility (sm).
Sfc pres (in)...844 844 844 845 847 848 847 847 846 845 844 843

$$
Forecaster...Danny Gant
Requested by...Bob Little
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1704926.0/GSP


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