Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 201224
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Angola Creek...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
824 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
The Bermuda High will expand west over the region today and tomorrow,
bringing summerlike temperatures. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms
could develop during the heat of the day. Today`s seabreeze front
should move across the burn site between 5 and 6 PM with a shift
from westerly to south-southwest winds.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Low.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Areas of dense
                    fog burning off by 9 AM. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................89 percent at ignition...Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 1 mph at
                    ignition...becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......41600 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Max ADI.............30.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........61  55  48  55  61  68  67  65  64
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............65  70  77  81  83  84  84  84  83
RH..............89  75  63  54  51  49  48  47  50
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   10  10  20  30  40  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   4   6   6   6   5   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.5       10  10  10      10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.9
Trans Wnd Dir...W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW
Trans Wnd Spd...2   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   7
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..1   2   7   16  30  40  37  33  28
Stability.......C   D   C   D   D   D   D   C   C
LVORI...........5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............2   4   8   13  20  24  24  30  27
Aparnt Tmp (F)..69  74  79  82  84  85  85  85  84
Sfc pres (in)...013 013 013 013 013 003 003 003 003

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and southwest.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......1265 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........6.
Min ADI.............2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........56     40     32     29     29     29
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............81     76     71     68     67     65
RH..............54     68     78     83     84     87
CHC Pcpn (%)....20     0      0      0      10     10
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    S 4    SW 4   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     5      5      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..SW 7   S 6    S 5    SW 5   SW 6   SW 6
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..19     2      1      1      1      1
Stability.......C      F      F      F      F      F
LVORI...........2      3      4      5      5      6
ADI.............21     3      2      2      3      3
Aparnt Tmp (F)..83     76     71     68     67     65
Sfc pres (in)...30.03  30.01  30.01  30.01  29.99  29.99

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 88.
RH..................Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......84065 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............59.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     26     23     22     23     31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............65     68     76     83     87     87
RH..............90     85     66     52     44     43
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     0      0      0      10     10
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    900    2700   5700   5400
Transport wind..SW 7   SW 7   SW 9   SW 12  W 14   SW 15
Haines Index....5      4      4      4      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      2      8      31     79     82
Stability.......F      C      C      C      D      D
LVORI...........6      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............3      6      8      35     45     48
Aparnt Tmp (F)..65     68     76     84     87     88
Sfc pres (in)...29.99  29.99  29.99  29.99  29.90  29.90

$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...Angie Carl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707264.0/ILM
.EMAIL acarl@tnc.org



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