Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FNUS74 KLIX 191254
FWSLIX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOGUE CHITTO B...U.S. FWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
754 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

.REMARKS...
ALMOST 1/2 OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT AT THE HANCOCK RAWS WHICH IS +/-
15 MILESEAST OF THE BURN UNIT.
1. DO YOU KNOW IF SHOWERES WERE SCATTERED IN THE AREA OR IF A LINE OF
RAIN CAME THRU THE AREA

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN LAST NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WERE COMMON.

2. FORECASTED RH LOW OF 44. IS THAT REALISTIC

AT THE BURN UNIT...THE LATEST GRIDS ON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
TODAY IS 50 PERCENT. THERE ARE SOME POINTS ACROSS WASHINGTON PARISH WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUE AROUND 45 PERCENT. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN DEWPOINT
FROM 68F TO 65F WILL LIKELY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BY 5 TO 7 PERCENT.
KEEP IN MIND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIVER AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER
WILL AFFECT LOCAL RH VALUES.

2. IS THERE A CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

3. THE BURN UNIT

.TODAY...
TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57  55  53  51  51  50  50  47  41  38  32
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............74  78  82  85  87  88  89  89  88  87  85
RH..............93  87  82  72  63  55  52  54  57  61  67
DEWPOINT........70  72  72  72  71  69  68  69  70  70  71
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   ESE ESE ESE SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1
MIX HGT (KM)....1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE ESE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13  13  15  15  15  17  17  17  18  18  18
TRANS SPD (M/S).6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
DISPERSION......51  39  44  44  44  47  47  47  50  50  50
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........19     14     15     10     11     18
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............83     78     75     74     72     72
RH..............67     79     90     90     93     90
DEWPOINT........71     71     72     71     70     69
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 3   ESE 2  E 2    E 2    ENE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5100   4300   3700   3700   3300   3200
MIX HGT (M).....1550   1310   1130   1130   1010   980
TRANSPORT WIND..ESE 18 ESE 20 ESE 21 ESE 21 ESE 22 ESE 22
TRAN WIND (M/S).ESE 8  ESE 9  ESE 9  ESE 9  ESE 10 ESE 10
DISPERSION......50     6      7      7      8      8
LVORI...........1      4      5      5      6      6
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10

.SATURDAY...
TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........23     25     25     25     25     25
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............70     73     81     87     89     87
RH..............93     87     72     59     54     53
DEWPOINT........68     69     71     71     70     68
20 FT WIND......ENE 2  ENE 3  E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3200   3400   4000   4000   4700   5500
MIX HGT (M).....980    1040   1220   1220   1430   1680
TRANSPORT WIND..ESE 22 E 21   E 17   E 17   E 14   E 12
TRAN WIND (M/S).ESE 10 E 9    E 8    E 8    E 6    E 5
DISPERSION......66     62     70     70     75     82
LVORI...........4      4      2      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. LIGHT
WINDS.
.TUESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT
WINDS.

$$
FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS LEROUGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140919.BOGUE.01/LIX






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