Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FNUS72 KMFL 231050
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR CALSTONES DEUX RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL CURTAIL THE GULF BREEZE FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR
INLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT MAY ALSO HELP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
PUSH FURTHER THAN NORMAL. EITHER WAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IT LOOKS TO BE A SLOW START IN THE MORNING,
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
MOVING INLAND. BY MID DAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MAINLAND. FOR THE BURN AREA, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THEY WILL
BEGIN AROUND 1 PM, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR ON EITHER
SIDE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....14...INCREASING TO 53 LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 22 IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........27     27     31     80     80     80
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD WIDSPD WIDSPD NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD WIDSPD WIDSPD NUMRUS
TEMP............76     88     91     91     90     86
RH..............95     64     56     54     56     62
20 FT WIND......SE 1   SE 1   S 3    S 3    S 3    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      5      5      10
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   4000   5000   5000   5000   4500
MIXNG WIND......NE 2   NE 2   S 9    S 8    S 8    S 6
DISPERSION IDX..14     14     53     26     26     17
LVORI...........4      4      1      1      1      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     40     80     80     60
LAL.............2      2      3      5      5      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............7.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 52 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7...INCREASING TO 30 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...IPPOLITI
REQUESTED BY...MCKNIGHT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140723.CALST.02/MFL


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