Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 310441
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR AFR UNIT 12...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
941 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE PROJECT TODAY RESULTING IN HOT, DRY CONDITIONS. MIXING SHOULD
BE GOOD BY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF A MID LEVEL
INVERSION BREAKS. CURRENTLY, WE FORECAST IT TO HOLD AROUND 5000
FEET, BUT IF MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ANY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, SMOKE
WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS ALOFT ARE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SLOPE
DRIVEN, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND TODAY SHOULD BE NO EXCEPTION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND IGNITION TIME THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE 1-2 MPH AFTER 10 AM THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH AFTER 2 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION TIME INCREASING TO 5000
                    FT AGL AFTER NOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WRIGHT
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY DELACK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160531.AFRUN.01/MFR



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