Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 261039
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 54 Seaborn Rd...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
539 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
NW winds gusts 15 to 20 mph early this morning will diminish late
this morning and early afternoon. Low RH values today, dropping
to around 20 percent this afternoon.

High pressure will build in today then slide offshore Monday
through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
High pressure will build in behind the front Friday and Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20
                    mph this morning...then diminishing to 5 to 10 mph
                    this afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 20 mph...diminishing to 5 to 10 mph
                    this afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 46805 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 51.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.04 to 30.20 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   4   4
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............45  43  44  48  50  53  55  56  58  59  57  54
RH.................45  47  45  40  37  33  30  27  26  24  25  31
20 FT wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd.....10  10  10  10  10   9   8   7   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust....20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)......2.4 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.1
Transp wind dir....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd....18  17  16  15  14  13  12  10  10  10  10  10
LVORI..............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................51  46  47  47  34  32  41  39  39  40  41  32
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..43  38  42  44  46  47  47  46  46  46  46  32
Stability class....F   F   F   F   E   E   B   B   B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 9 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 919 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 1.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.22 to 30.38 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............5   5   5   5   5   6   7   7   9   14  16  19
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............50  46  44  41  40  39  38  37  37  36  35  34
RH.................39  47  53  62  64  70  73  75  75  79  82  85
20 FT wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd.....2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust....
Mix hgt (kft)......1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd....9   8   7   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI..............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
ADI................4   4   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   2   1
Haines index.......5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..15  2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny early...then becoming mostly cloudy.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph...increasing to 10 to 15
                    mph late.
Vent Rate...........Max 69575 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 43.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.37 to 30.48 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............24     30     38     49     56     69
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............34     41     54     62     66     67
RH.................89     76     52     48     48     50
20 ft wind.........E 1    E 3    E 5    SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
20 ft wind gust....       5             10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft).......300    1000   2600   4200   5200   5500
Transport wind.....NE 3   NE 6   E 10   SE 12  SE 12  SE 13
LVORI..............6      4      2      1      1      1
ADI................3      7      28     43     37     41
Haines index.......4      4      4      5      4      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      6      27     48     59     70
Stability class....F      F      F      B      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Dail
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702909.0/MHX
.EMAIL davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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