383
FNUS72 KMLB 121044
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for St. Sebastian Wildfire...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
644 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on May 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light and variable winds early this morning will become northeast
around 5 to 8 mph after sunrise this morning. Winds will then
become east to northeast, increasing to around 10 to 15 mph this
afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph possible as the east coast
sea breeze forms and shifts inland past the burn site. Mostly
dry conditions expected, but a few passing sprinkles may be occur
this afternoon with increasing higher cloud cover. The onshore
flow will keep Min RH values above critical values and dispersion
values will be generally good.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  31  36  41  46  49  52  54  50  46  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  73  77  81  83  83  84  85  85  85  85
RH..............87  81  71  63  59  59  57  53  53  53  53
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   8   9   10  12  12  13  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.9   10  10  10  13  14  15  16  16  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.3 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.2
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   9   10  12  12  13  14  13  12
Dispersion idx..4   11  35  39  46  48  47  46  46  44  40
LVORI...........6   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....38 decreasing to 7 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 5 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........41     40     22     16     15     18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............83     79     76     73     73     72
RH..............57     64     74     81     81     84
20 ft wind......E 12   E 9    E 8    E 7    SE 7   E 6
20 ft wind gust.15     13     12     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   1700   400    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 12   E 13   E 12   E 9    SE 10  E 10
Dispersion idx..38     9      8      6      6      6
LVORI...........2      3      4      4      5      5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    east around 17 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 59.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........31     30     46     58     60     59
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............70     75     82     85     86     85
RH..............90     82     69     62     61     62
20 ft wind......E 7    E 10   SE 13  E 14   E 16   E 17
20 ft wind gust.10     15     16     18     22     23
Mix hgt (ft)....400    2100   3400   4100   4300   3500
Transport wind..E 12   E 14   SE 14  SE 15  SE 16  SE 17
Dispersion idx..7      34     47     53     59     59
LVORI...........5      3      2      1      1      2

$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...OPS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413813.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Patrick.Sullivan@floridadep.gov