Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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130
FNUS74 KMOB 221249
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for F-8, F-23...E.N.R.
National Weather Service Mobile AL
749 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Latest high resolution data indicates that showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the burn site today. The stronger
storms will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
downpours.  Afternoon relative humidities will remain well above
critical levels with Fair to Generally Good dispersion values.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2700-4200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...823-1280 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 2 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 40.
LVORI...............2.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  46  51  60  65  62  56  53  52
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  60  70  70  60  50
LAL.............3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   3
Temp............83  87  89  90  90  90  90  90  88
RH..............77  70  64  62  62  62  62  62  66
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  10  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
Mix hgt (km)....0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   8   9   9   10  12
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   5
Dispersion idx..16  22  26  25  25  25  29  35  44
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1900, then 1-8 strikes until
                    0100, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......2800-3900 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1400 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height (m)...853-1189 meters AGL decreasing to 244-427
                    meters AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph early in the morning.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 2 to 6 meters/second shifting to the
                    west early in the morning.
Dispersion index....48 decreasing to 11.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  49  48  48  48  45  40  37  38  40  41  45
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............86  84  82  81  79  78  77  77  76  76  75  74
RH..............68  72  77  82  88  91  94  94  97  94  97  100
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Mix hgt (km)....1.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  9   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   3
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   1
Dispersion idx..48  15  13  12  10  9   8   7   7   7   6   6
LVORI...........2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   7   8

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3800-5100 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...305-884 meters AGL increasing to 1158-1554
                    meters AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 1 to 4 meters/second increasing to
                    around 6 meters/second late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 41.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  55  56  59  61  63  66  67  66  64  63  61
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............74  75  79  83  87  90  91  91  91  90  90  89
RH..............100 100 88  77  68  62  60  58  58  62  62  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   6   7   8   8   9   10  13  14  14
Trans wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).1   1   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   6   6   6
Dispersion idx..5   12  16  19  22  24  27  30  33  38  42  44
LVORI...........8   6   4   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...29
Requested by...Jerry Coon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713157.0/MOB
.EMAIL jerry.coon@us.af.mil



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