Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FNUS74 KMOB 201339
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for De Soto 6351...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Mobile AL
839 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southeast to south flow in the mixing layer is expected
through tonight. Rain coverage is expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the day, with this afternoon and evening seeing the
strongest storms along with most coverage.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1300, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...366-945 meters AGL increasing to 945-1006
                    meters AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 8 meters/second.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  86  87  88  89  89  90  90
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............82  84  85  85  84  84  83  82
RH..............74  70  70  70  72  70  72  74
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  11  11  11  11  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
Mix hgt (km)....0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  18  16  15  15  14  14  14
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).8   8   7   7   7   6   6   6
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1900-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height (m)...579-945 meters AGL decreasing to 244-305 meters
                    AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........89     89     89     90     91     90
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).60     70     70     70     70     70
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............80     77     74     73     71     70
RH..............79     87     93     93     100    100
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     E      SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..6      5      5      4      3      3
20 FT wind gust.10     10     10     5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   1000   1000   900    800    800
Mix hgt (m).....940    300    300    270    240    240
Transp wind dir.SE     SE     SE     S      S      S
Transp wind spd.13     12     9      8      7      6
Trans wind dir..SE     SE     SE     S      S      S
Trans spd (m/s).6      5      4      4      3      3
LVORI...........3      5      6      8      9      9

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 0700, then >25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-2600 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...274-792 meters AGL increasing to 884-1097
                    meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 5 meters/second.
LVORI...............6.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........91           94           95
Weather cov.....LIKELY       DEFNTE       DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY       DEFNTE       DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).70           80           80
LAL.............4            5            5
Temp............69           78           84
RH..............100          82           67
20 FT wind dir..SE           SE           S
20 FT wind spd..3            8            6
20 FT wind gust.5            15           10
Mix hgt (ft)....900          2600         3400
Mix hgt (m).....270          790          1040
Transp wind dir.S            S            S
Transp wind spd.7            8            12
Trans wind dir..S            S            S
Trans spd (m/s).3            4            5
LVORI...........9            3            3

$$
Forecaster...12
Requested by...Jay Boykin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1709797.0/MOB
.EMAIL jayboykin@fs.fed.us



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