Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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259
FNUS73 KPAH 221342
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Patoka East Rx...U.S Fish & Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Paducah KY
842 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes region will
move southeast, reaching the middle Atlantic coast late Thursday.
This high will produce a northeast wind flow of cooler and drier
air for today, followed by a milder southeast wind on Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will return by Friday night, when a low
pressure system will form over the Plains. This low will move
northeast into central Illinois by Sunday morning. As the low
passes by, winds will become southwest on Sunday, bringing
somewhat warmer and drier air.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 49.
RH..................50 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 8 to 10
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-3400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............36     41     46     49     47
RH..............50     37     28     26     29
20 FT wind dir..NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
20 FT wind spd..10     10     9      10     8
20 FT wind gust.15     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   2800   3400   3200   3100
Transp wind dir.NE     NE     NE     E      E
Transp wind spd.18     17     16     15     15
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 32.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............45     41     39     37     35     34
RH..............32     41     46     52     56     62
20 FT wind dir..NE     NE     E      E      E      E
20 FT wind spd..8      7      6      7      7      7
20 FT wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   2800   2200   1500   1300   1400
Transp wind dir.E      E      E      E      E      E
Transp wind spd.15     16     18     17     17     17
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2000-2700 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............32     35     43     51     57     60
RH..............66     58     48     44     41     42
20 FT wind dir..E      E      SE     SE     SE     S
20 FT wind spd..7      8      9      8      8      8
20 FT wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1200   1500   2100   2600   2500
Transp wind dir.E      SE     SE     S      S      S
Transp wind spd.15     14     13     12     13     15
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      4

$$
Forecaster...TREVINO
Requested by...Brian Winters
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704905.0/PAH
.EMAIL brian_winters@fws.gov



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