Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 011208
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD BOTTOMS...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
708 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CDT ON OCTOBER 01.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF INVERSION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
5 PM OR 6 PM...WITH THE INVERSION HOLDING AROUND 1000 FEET MSL.

HOWEVER...A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM CDT...WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INVERSION.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 3 AM CDT
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NIGHTTIME INVERSION NEAR
THE SURFACE ALONG THE BLUFFS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MIXING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE VALID IF THE HEAT CARRIED IN THE SMOKE PLUME CAN WARM
THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET TO NEGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE INVERSION. AN INCREASE
IN SURFACE WINDS UP THE RIVER VALLEY WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INVERSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF...BUT SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 87.
RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............71  76  79  82  84  85  85  84  81
RH..............69  59  52  46  44  42  43  46  52
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5       10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.8 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.2 6.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8   10  14  16  17  18  18  18  17
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 65.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 0 TO 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............77  74  73  71  70  69  69  68  68  67  67  66
RH..............61  67  71  72  74  75  76  77  79  80  83  87
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.4 5.8 4.9 4.0 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  14  12  8   5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86.
RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 11 MPH.
CWR.................22 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 31 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............66        75        82        84
RH..............90        74        65        65
20 FT WIND......S 3G5     S 7G20    S 8G20    S 9G20
MIX HGT (FT)....600       2700      4900      5000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 0       S 10      S 23      S 29
CWR.............20        20        20        20
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141001.OAKWO.01/PAH






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