Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FNUS75 KPUB 132238
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Pikes Peak Piles...USFS
National Weather Service PUEBLO CO
338 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 MST on December 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Incoming storm system will bring snow to the area tonight, probably
beginning between 2200 and 2400 and continuing until late morning
Thursday. Total snow accumulation in the burn area is expected to
be about 3 to 4 inches.  Dry weather returns for Friday.  There
are differences between the forecast models for a weather system
moving through the area late Saturday and Sunday.  One forecast
model shows maybe just a few showers with late Saturday night and
early Sunday with no accumulation, while the other forecast model
has a much better chance for precipitation Saturday night through
midday Sunday, with up to 3 inches of accumulation.  Therefore,
there is little confidence regarding how much precipitation may
fall late this weekend at the burn site.  Winds on Saturday look
northerly at 5-10 mph, and on Sunday may be more southerly at
5-10 mph or could be westerly depending on how the storm system
tracks.  Highs on Saturday should be in the lower 40s, lows Saturday
night 10 to 15 degrees, and highs on Sunday in the upper 20s.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Numerous showers after 2200.
Min temperature.....13-18F.
Max humidity........87-92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light wind.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph until 2200, then north.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy until 1000, then partly sunny(62
                    percent). Showers until 0800, then scattered
                    showers.
Max temperature.....21-26F.
Min humidity........54-59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good until 1500, then
                    fair until 1600, then poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....8-13F.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....38-43F.
Min humidity........13-18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West 10-15 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1300, then fair until 1500, then
                    poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...28
Requested by...USFS
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719953.0/PUB



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