Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 300028
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR CROWS FIRE...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2006 EDT ON APRIL 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT UNDER
THICKENING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AROUND
DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD PUSH HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK UP TO ABOVE 80
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THINGS BECOMING ABOUT SATURATED EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT MAINLY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...TURNING NORTHEAST BY
MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW 10 MPH.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE WILL KEEP
THINGS QUITE MOIST ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE A TENTH TO
ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY. MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO INCREASE FROM THE EARLY INVERSION WITH
SMOKE DISPERSION ALSO LIMITED.

ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR. THIS
COULD BRING COMBINED RAINFALL TOTALS TO OVER AN INCH BY LATE
SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WHEN SPEEDS COULD BE MORE IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

&&

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 6
                    TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............51  57  63  62  62  59  57  57  60  68
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................68  65  62  59  57  54  52  51  50  50
RH..................48  55  63  69  74  81  86  92  94  95
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NE  E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....21  20  18  17  15  12  9   8   7   6
LVORI...............1   1   1   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
ADI.................71  65  63  8   7   5   4   4   3   3
CWR.................0   10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT).
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN LIKELY LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5
                    TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 16 TO 17
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............80  87  93  97  99  100 100 99  98  98  98  98
WEATHER COV.........    ARS ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........    FOG RNF RNF RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................50  50  52  54  56  57  58  59  60  61  62  62
RH..................97  99  94  90  86  82  80  78  75  74  73  72
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......1   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....    5   5   5   5   10  10  10  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   6   7   7   9   12  14  16  17  17  17
LVORI...............6   9   6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................3   3   3   4   5   15  22  30  38  39  38  35
CWR.................10  10  20  20  30  30  40  40  50  50  60  70

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH.
TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............98  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 97  97  96
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................62  61  60  59  58  57  57  56  56  55  55  55
RH..................75  79  82  84  83  86  87  88  89  90  92  94
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  14  14  14  16  18  18  20  20  21  21  20
LVORI...............3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   6   6
ADI.................31  27  24  26  28  20  21  22  22  9   9   9
CWR.................70  70  80  80  80  90  90  80  80  80  80  80

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH...BECOMING WEST 20 TO 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............96     94     94     94     94     96
WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
TEMP................54     57     62     65     68     69
RH..................96     89     80     75     73     67
20 FT WIND..........S 2    S 2    SW 4   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1300   900    1900   3100   4400   4200
TRANSPORT WIND......S 16   S 12   SW 18  W 22   W 20   W 24
LVORI...............6      6      4      3      3      1
ADI.................7      5      12     53     57     69
CWR.................80     70     70     70     70     80

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160429.CROWS.01/RNK


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