Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KSJT 201320
FWSSJT

Spot Forecast for Buffalo Branch Ranch...Hays Critter Co
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
720 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on January 20.
Please contact our office at 325-944-3030 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire danger conditions are possible this afternoon across
portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country, as gusty southwest
winds combine with afternoon humidities under 25 percent.
Conditions will deteriorate for Sunday afternoon, as strong west
winds gusting over 30 mph at times combines with humidities
falling into the 15 to 20 percent range. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for Sunday afternoon with critical fire weather
conditions possible.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (5-15 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................100 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 200-2000 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 12 to 20 mph shifting to the south 16
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /5500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /37900 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........51     15     4      8      12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     52     64     72     73
RH..............100    69     41     28     28
20 ft wind......S 8    SW 10  SW 13  SW 13  S 10
20 ft wind gust.10     15     20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1200   1700   2000   1300
Mixing wind......SW 13  SW 20  SW 23  SW 22  S 16
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10006      20     34     38     18

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......300-900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to poor (3300-10700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........14     18     22     25     42     64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............66     58     54     51     49     52
RH..............37     55     69     80     93     89
20 ft wind......S 9    S 8    S 9    S 9    S 9    S 9
20 ft wind gust.15     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....900    500    400    400    500    500
Mixing wind......S 14   S 12   S 12   S 10   S 9    S 12
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100011     5      4      4      4      5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 18 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph increasing to 16 to 22 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    4700-5800 ft AGL in the afternoon decreasing to
                    3600 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 17 to 23 mph increasing to west 28 to
                    37 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (8900-47500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent to excellent (84300-117700 knot-ft)
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    excellent to excellent (145900-185600 knot-ft)
                    in the afternoon decreasing to excellent
                    (101200 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........80     73     65     42     29     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............53     55     59     67     69     68
RH..............93     90     75     49     25     17
20 ft wind......S 10   S 12   SW 14  W 18   W 22   W 18
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     30     40     30
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1300   2800   5000   5500   4700
Mixing wind......S 17   SW 28  W 35   W 35   W 37   W 36
Haines index....5      5      3      3      3      5
SDspl kt-ft/10009      32     84     151    178    146

$$
Forecaster...HUBER
Requested by...John Hays
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800639.0/SJT



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