Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FNUS75 KTFX 142249
FWSTFX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ETHEL 22...HELENA NF, LINCOLN RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
449 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HOVER AROUND 20
PERCENT WITH WORSENING OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGE TOPS...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER RECOVERY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COULSTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
COULSTON

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-37 5000-5400 FEET...38-42 5500-5900 FEET.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT 5000-5400 FEET...65-70 PERCENT
                    5500-5900 FEET.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    7 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WIND......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
MOSTLY 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE BY
FRIDAY...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE FROM THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S...BUT MAXIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE FROM
THE 50S (MID SLOPES/RIDGE TOPS) AND 60S (LOWER ELEVATIONS) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THE 75 TO 85 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...COULSTON
REQUESTED BY...WILLIAM SCHROEDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140915.ETHEL.01/TFX






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