Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FNUS73 KUNR 221522
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for RTRL/Hutchison Ranch Slash Pile...PIne Ridge Agency
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
822 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MST on February 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will remain below average through the
weekend, though a very gradual warming trend is expected. A storm
system will bring accumulating snowfall to south central South
Dakota late this morning and afternoon. Another system could bring
snowfall to mainly south central South Dakota again late Friday
night into Saturday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of snow in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then slight chance of snow
                    late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........19 at ignition...Max 23.
RH..................87 percent at ignition...Min 70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    early in the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent decreasing to 0 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.
Mixing height.......1600 to 2100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 4.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South around 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    early in the evening, then increasing to
                    northwest around 5 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......200 to 700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of snow late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 25.
RH..................Min 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West around 5 mph shifting to the southeast
                    early in the afternoon, then increasing to 5 to
                    10 mph late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1100 to 1600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

$$
Forecaster...JC
Requested by...Kyle Golus
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802372.0/UNR
.EMAIL kyle.golus14@gmail.com



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