Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 242137
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AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE. HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE AND
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CAUSING SMALL STREAMS TO RUN HIGH.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE SLOWLY
MIGRATED EAST BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND Y-K DELTA THROUGH
THE EASTERN INTERIOR THEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE. THE
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF PRODUCED ANOTHER DISTINCT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION... ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND ITS EMBEDDED CUT-OFF
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE NEAR TERM ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FIRST OVER
THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY THEN
ENTER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST REALLY GETS GOING BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SEEMS TO REMAIN UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVES DROPPING
INTO THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PARENT TROUGH HELP TO REJUVENATE THE
SEMI PERMANENT SYSTEM.

THE FREEZING LEVEL THURSDAY MORNING WERE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SURFACE AT
BARROW TO 9100 FEET AT ANNETTE. ON THE FLIP SIDE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
BEGAN TO SHOW ACROSS THE WEST WITH VALUES BETWEEN 8200 FT AT KING
SALMON TO 9400 FT AT BETHEL.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.80
GOBA2    GOBBLERS KNOB SNOTEL PC RM :   0.70
GLSA2    GOLDSTREAM CREEK NEA PP RG :   0.69
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   0.60
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE S PC RM :   0.60
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS CEN PP RG :   0.51
COFA2    COLDFOOT SNOTEL      PC RM :   0.50
SGSA2    SKILAK GUARD STATION PP RG :   0.47
PANN     NENANA               PP RZ :   0.46
DCKA2    DAHL CREEK NR KOBUK  PP RG :   0.46
KNAA2    MYSTERY CREEK AT KEN PP RG :   0.42
MDEA2    MEADE RIVER NEAR ATQ PP RG :   0.41
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   0.40
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   0.40
ARDA2    ANCHOR RIVER DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.40
PAWI     WAINWRIGHT           PP RZ :   0.39
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RG :   0.39
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PP RG :   0.35
IMYA2    IMELYAK RAWS         PP RG :   0.34
HULA2    HULAHULA RIVER NEAR  PP RG :   0.34
NESA2    NENANA SNOTEL        PC RM :   0.32
UNCA2    UPPER NOME CREEK     PC RZ :   0.31
RDMA2    AK RED DOG MINE 3 SS PP RZ :   0.31
PACD     COLD BAY             PP RZ :   0.31
PABT     BETTLES              PP RZ :   0.31
MNOA2    MT. NOAK             PP RG :   0.31
KNMA2    AK KENAI 29 ENE      PP RG :   0.31
BROA2    BARROW ENE CRN       PP RZ :   0.31
WONA2    WONDER LAKE RAWS     PP RG :   0.30

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH



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