Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 311544
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE IN CANADA
LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 24 HOUR BASIN
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH 8 AM THIS SUNDAY MORNING
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS.
:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION.
:
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0
.25 TO 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES PRIMARILY FROM
THE CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK TO THE BERKSHIRES OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN SOUTHERN MAINE.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE ARE RUNNING ON AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF AUGUST EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE THEY AVERAGE BELOW TO IN SOME CASES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS ARE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE
MANY GAUGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PASSING FLOWS IN THE LOWEST 10
PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR AUGUST 31ST.
:
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RISES
COULD POSSIBLY BE A LITTLE GREATER OVER SOME OF THE FLASHY
HEADWATER AND URBANIZED RIVER BASINS IF THEY ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL. NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                DAVID VALLEE




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