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000
AGUS71 KTAR 191518
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1117 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF MAINE NOT TOO FAR FROM HALIFAX IN NOVA SCOTIA PROVINCE
CANADA. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF AIR AROUND THIS HIGH IS PUSHING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND AND WE HAVE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
:
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
WILL HEAD NORTHEAST. TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WE EXPECT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND EVENTUALLY INTO MAINE. THIS SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MAINE WHERE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
VERY LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE FIRST ONE-HALF OF MONDAY.
:
LIGHTER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE UNDER 0.25
INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.
:
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE
SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE AS SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL IS FOR THE MOST PART
WELCOME AS MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN DRY CONDITIONS THIS SPRING.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
NERFC REGION RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY IN RECESSION OR HOLDING AT
STEADY ELEVATIONS.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WILL BE ACROSS INLAND MAINE, WHERE UP TO 1.0 INCH OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.  RIVER LEVELS IN THIS AREA CAN
BE EXPECTED TO RESPOND WITH RISES OF UP TO 2 FEET, WITH CRESTS
OCCURRING MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE NERFC REGION, AS SEEN ON THE USGS
WATERWATCH WEB PAGE, ARE GENERALLY BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-MAY.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE RIVERS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP.SHTML
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:          RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                   BILL SAUNDERS