Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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817
FXAK02 KWNH 191807
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017

VALID 12Z MON JAN 23 2017 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2017

...VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AK AND WITHIN THE AK PANHANDLE...

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR THE
160TH MERIDIAN WEST WHICH HAS AN EMBEDDED DEEP CENTER OF STORM
FORCE; THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LAST FRONTIER. THE AVAILABLE
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT SUCH A STORM, WHICH TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE AK PENINSULA.  WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD, BASED THE PRESSURES, 500 HPA HEIGHTS, AND WEATHER GRIDS ON
A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z GFS, 12Z GFS, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, AND
00Z ECMWF, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 00Z NAEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHERE POCKETS WITHIN THE BROOKS RANGE COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE -40S FAHRENHEIT/CELSIUS. THERMAL MODIFICATION
WILL BE UNDERWAY STATEWIDE AS THE DEEP CYCLONE NEARS SOUTHWEST AK.
 THE BIGGEST WARM UP WILL BE OUT EAST WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME, WHERE TEMPERATURES INLAND COULD RISE INTO THE
30S WITH PANHANDLE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO 50F.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THE ALEUTIANS AND ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST TO THE
PANHANDLE WET.  THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ARE IN THE PANHANDLE
AND KENAI PENINSULA, WHERE 9-15" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.

ROTH
$$





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