Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 301550
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 02 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 06 2014


USED MOSTLY THE 00Z/30 NAEFS MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH
A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/30 ECENS MEAN. THE NIGHT-AND-DAY
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELING CENTERS--PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA--ONCE AGAIN
PRECLUDE THEIR USE AS SYNOPTIC GUIDES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. TO A
LESSER--THOUGH NOT INSIGNIFICANT EXTENT--THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
THEMSELVES DIFFER AS WELL. TRIED TO COMBINE THE MEANS IN A WAY
THAT ADDRESSED THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MOST ELEGANT WAY
POSSIBLE--EMPHASIZING THE WAVE TRAIN CROSSING CANADA.

FORTUNATELY, THE NOISE IS CONFINED TO THE BIG PICTURE, WITH THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEITHER ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY NOR CONTENTIOUS.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE MIDWEST--NEAR
THE POLAR FRONT--AND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO PASS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND INTO OLD MEXICO.


CISCO

$$




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