Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 311050
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
649 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VALID 00Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 00Z SAT AUG 08 2015

QUIET PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING DRIFTS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EARLY NEXT WEEK THE REMNANTS OF TD
8E IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 11-15N SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS.   HOWEVER, PART OF ITS MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN ISLANDS -- AND AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY IN WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS IS TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.  THE
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK TAKES IT EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND WITH A MOTION IN ITS GENERAL DIRECTION. INDIVIDUAL
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS SHOW TIMING CHANGES AND NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES
ON THE TRACK. MORE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND, IN CONTRAST WITH THE 00-06Z GFS SHOWING A TRACK NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS NEXT WED-THU, 05-06 AUG.  A TRACK AT OR SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS WOULD INDUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, SO THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC FOR THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AND RESULTANT IMPACTS.

PETERSEN

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