Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 241202
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
801 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

VALID 00Z SUN JUN 25 2017 - 00Z SUN JUL 02 2017

EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND A RIDGE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTING TRADES ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TRADES SHOULD BE WEAKEST DURING THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDWARD AND SEA BREEZE FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG A TRACK JUST WEST
OF THE ISLANDS MAY PROMOTE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY.  AFTER SUNDAY GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE IDEA OF TRADES BECOMING MORE BRISK WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DECLINE TO AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES.  THUS EXPECT LIGHTER
RAINFALL WITH A MORE WINDWARD FOCUS.  TOWARD FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TRADES MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND SOME SURFACE TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW THAT MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST.  THUS FAR MODELS HAVE NOT ESTABLISHED GOOD MULTI-RUN
CONTINUITY FOR THE STRENGTH/SHAPE AND TIMING OF THIS UPPER FEATURE
SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF EXACT DETAILS ALOFT THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL
SIGNAL TOWARD SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD.

RAUSCH

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