Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261204
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
803 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

VALID 00Z TUE SEP 27 2016 - 00Z TUE OCT 04 2016

CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ULTIMATELY SETTLING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY
ALLOW FLOW TO ACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
AT LEAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, TO FAVOR
WINDWARD TERRAIN.  LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR ONE INCH
SHOULD EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AROUND TUESDAY.
 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL SOME INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING THE
WEEKEND, AS 1.50-1.75 INCH AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GREATER PWATS REACH
THE AREA.  00Z/06Z GFS PWATS LIE BETWEEN THE LOWER VALUES IN THE
00Z ECMWF AND HIGHER VALUES IN THE 12Z/25 ECMWF.  THERE ARE STILL
INDICATIONS THAT A DIFFUSE WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY EVOLVE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS TO AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE FROM LOWER LATITUDES.

RAUSCH

$$





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