Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 181206
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
806 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 00Z FRI SEP 26 2014

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER A SEEMINGLY REASONABLE AND SIMILAR
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN A PATTERN WITH
LIGHT TRADES UNDERNEATH MODEST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. THE HIGH QUICKLY WEAKENS AS A FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF THE
STATE IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS DISRUPTS TRADES AND ALLOWS
FORMATION OF A PATTERN WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE SHOWERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEAHWHILE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND IS SLATED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY ACT TO INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AND ALLOW SOME ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT TRADES MAY RETURN BY NEXT
TUE-THU LEADING INTO A RETURN OF LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER BASED
PATTERN.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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