Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 230634
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID MAY 23/0000 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
PAIR OF SURFACE WAVES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OTHER THAN THE 00Z UKMET LYING SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY, THERE WAS A DEFINITE TREND SEEN IN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z GUIDANCE, OUTSIDE THE CANADIAN, HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A
QUICKER SOLUTION HERE, SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM.  SINCE THE
CANADIAN CAN HAVE A SLOW BIAS WITH SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERLIES, PREFER A NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SHIFT IN THIS
REGION.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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