Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 010058
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...VALID 01Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 12Z WED JUN 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE MRJ 15 NW DVN FSW 30 NE IRK 15 NNE OTM 10 SE IIB
20 NW CMY 15 NNE PBH 15 ENE IWD 30 N LNL 25 E LNL 25 ESE EGV
15 NNE AIG 20 SW PCZ 10 ENE MRJ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 WSW MMPG 35 WNW DRT 60 SSE MAF 30 NW BPG 25 ESE LBB 20 W LTS
CHK 10 N AQR 45 NNE PRX 15 S MWT 25 NW ELD 10 NW SHV 25 ENE LFK
25 NE EFD 25 WSW KBQX 25 N PIL 30 W MMRX 40 NNE MMAN 50 NE MMMV
40 WSW MMPG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SE MRH 75 S MRH 55 S SUT 10 SW MYR 25 SSW DPL 30 SSE EDE
30 NE HSE 40 SE HSE 60 SE MRH.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 S GLD 30 NNE EHA 30 SW DUX 35 SW TCC 40 E CQC 25 SE SKX VTP
30 SW FCS 30 SW LIC 55 S GLD.


...WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...

A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDED UP THROUGH EASTERN IOWA INTO WI
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME POOLED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SSW TO NNE TRAINING...AS 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS VARY LITTLE FROM THE
PREDICTED CORFIDI VECTORS FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS. BOTH
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND LATEST HI RES MODELS POINT TOWARD AREA FROM
ERN IA INTO THE WRN HALF OF WI FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS. HI
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SHORT TERM LOCAL 2+ INCH RAINS COULD
OCCUR...WHICH WOULD APPROACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED SOME OF THE LOWER
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES.

..OKLAHOMA/TEXAS/SE CO/NE NM...

CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNDERWAY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHERE THE WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF PRODUCE 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN
THERE...AND 22-23Z HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH INDICATED EVEN HEAVIER
LOCAL TOTALS.

THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST NM AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST TX/NM BORDER AS DIFLUENT FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST HAS PROVIDED ASCENT
CORRESPONDING WITH THE PEAK DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.
 THE MODELS FCST THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS..MOVING TOWARD A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 850 MB SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN END OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  A FEW MODELS AND HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING ENSEMBLES
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...TAPPING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

ANOTHER CLUSTER DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST CO AS THE MODELS SHOW A
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AS THE DENVER SOUNDING SHOWED LAYER
AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 70 PERCENT PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 DEG C/KM.  CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
CLUSTER ACROSS THE PALMER RIDGE AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
CO...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE KS BORDER AND CONTINUING SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE.

...COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA/ADJACENT SOUTH CAROLINA...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SC COAST
THIS MRNG AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH NEWD THIS PD.
THE CIRC REMAINS WEAK BUT COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION TO SUPPORT BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY PCPN. PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM CORE SYSTEM...AND THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS OCCASIONALLY HAVE NIGHT TIME RAINFALL MAXIMA WITH SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.  THE HRRR PARALLEL HAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SO IT WAS WORTH A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE HIGH
90 PERCENT LAYER RH IN THE MOREHEAD CITY SOUNDING PLUS THE GFS
SHOWING 700 MB BANDS OF CONVERGENCE ROTATING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANY HEAVIER BANDS OF SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO A
RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS ACRS THIS REGION.

BURKE/SULLIVAN/PETERSEN
$$




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