Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 012341
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/01/15 2340Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2330Z   KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...OHIO...MICHIGAN...
LOCATION...INDIANA...WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
ATTN WFOS...MKX...DVN...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NCRFC...
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EVENT...TROWAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/DEFORMATION WITH AND OUT AHEAD
OF UPPER LEVEL COMMA...JET AND NORTH/NE OF SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR BEST SNOWS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW PRODUCTION HAVING
THEIR OWN MECHANISMS ON GIVING MODERATE TO OCCLY HVY SNOWS MAINLY FROM
FAR EASTERN IOWA TO SE WISCONSIN/N ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA, SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN OHIO INTO PA AND NY.
VORT COMMA CLOUD SEEN WELL IN GOES IR AND WATER VAPOR NOW MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO E CENTRAL IOWA.  AT THE SAME TIME BROAD AREA OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH ORIGINS EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEING LIFTED OVER THE MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDING INTO LOWER MS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WAS BEING
ADVECTED INTO A TROWAL OR TROUGH OF MOIST AIR ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN IA
EAST INTO S WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.   THE COMBO OF LIFT AND
MOIST ADVECTION INTO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL IOWA ENE ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SE WISCONSIN THAT WAS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY LAKE
MICHIGAN. FURTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW NOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
DRY SLOT WORKING AS FAR EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW.   BUT THAT DRY SLOT
NOT MAKING ANY PENETRATION TO AREAS NORTH AND NE OF SURFACE LOW AND
WITH SUBTROPICAL JET S BAJA TO LOWER MS VALLEY MERGING WITH POLAR JET
FURTHER NORTH WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDING THE FORCING INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN AREA.  AREA NORTH AND NE OF SURFACE
LOW ALSO A GOOD DEFORMATION AREA THAT WAS ONLY SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH/SW INTO THE DEFORMATION THAT TOO HELPING
SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE SW LOWER MI/N INDIANA AREA EAST THRU SE MICHIGAN
AND FRA NORTHERN OHIO THAT WAS TRYING TO EXTEND INTO NW PA AND EXT
SW NY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST.    BLENDED TPW LOOP SHOWING NORTHERN
EDGE 0.50"  VALUES MAKING NO NORTH PROGRESS AND EXPANDING EAST ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN PA AND SHOULD BE A HELPFUL AREA FOR WHERE MODERATE
TO HVY SNOW IS CONFINED EITHER ALONG AND/OR JUST NORTH AND THIS FOLLOWS
PERFECTLY WITH OTHER FORCING GOING INTO SNOW PRODUCTION.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2330-0230Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VORT COMMA/TROWAL AREA  NOW FAR EASTERN IOWA
ENE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SE WISCONSIN SHIFTING EAST WITH BACK
EDGE SNOW DECREASING/WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS PERIOD...BUT
MAY STILL BE GOING STRONG NE ILLINOIS/NW INDIANA AND EXPANDING EAST
INTO SW MICHIGAN AND N INDIANA FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW THAT
CAN RESULT IN ISOLATED SNOW RATES HIGHER THAN 1"/HR.  SLOW DECREASE N
TO S IN WISCONSIN WITH SHORT WAVE COMMA SHIFTING EAST INTO ILLINOIS.
MOIST TROWAL SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL ONLY HELP N INDIANA AND NE
ILLINOIS SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD.
FURTHER EAST MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LONG FETCH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO DEFORMATION AREA TO THE NORTH AND NE OF SURFACE
LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM WESTERN INDIANA TO POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE OHIO-INDIANA BORDER THIS PERIOD.    DRY TONGUE SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO..COULD INFILTRATE PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NE
OHIO KEEPING BEST SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEFORMATION/TROWAL SNOWS NOW AS FAR EAST AS SW MI/NW
INDIANA THAT CAN AFFECT NW OHIO THIS PERIOD AND MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT
THE CLE AREA LATER TONIGHT.    MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO COLD AIR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND BEST SNOWS EAST ACROSS SW TO JUST WEST OF S CENTRAL
NY AND ACROSS NW PA INTO N CENTRAL PA POSSIBLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WLL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW LEVEL JET WITH BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA THAT CAN INFUSE SOME MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THAT LEADING EDGE SNOW IN WESTERN NY AND PA.   SEE LATEST
NCEP WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS AND NCEP SPC DISCUSSIONS
ALONG WITH OUR NESDIS GRAPHIC THAT WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY ON OUR WEB SITE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4290 8860 4266 8451 4263 7767 4137 7770 4124 8597
4190 9107
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