Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 301428
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/30/16 1427Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES 13: 1315
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...ONGOING RAINFALL/CONVECTION FOR U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A 250 MB JET MAXIMA
OF 70-85 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AT THE MID LEVELS, A VORTICITY MAXIMA AT 500 MB HAS PROGRESSED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS PER RECENT RAP ANALYSIS WITH A MORE VISIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PRESENT TO THE WEST JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA PER WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION. AT THE LOW LEVELS, WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SEEN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. SAN JUAN`S 12Z SOUNDING PROVIDED
AN UPDATE TO THE STATUS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING
FROM 1000 J/KG (00Z SOUNDING) TO ALMOST 1800 J/KG WHILE THE PWS REMAINED
CONSISTENT AROUND 2 INCHES. ANTIGUA`S 12Z SOUNDING DOWNSTREAM INDICATED
EVEN MORE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE JET MAXIMA,
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND THE VORTICITY MAXIMA JUST NORTH OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT THE ONGOING TREND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE AS THE MCS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY INTERACTING/MERGING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO
THE EAST AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR VIEQUES AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED CELL MERGERS AND THE WEAK AND ERRATIC WINDS NOTED IN
THE VERTICAL PROFILE FROM SAN JUAN.

AS FOR PUERTO RICO ITSELF, THE LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAINFALL WOULD IMPLY A LOW THREAT OF CONVECTIVE REGENERATION AT
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UPSTREAM ENERGY STILL WELL W
OF THE ISLAND AND THE PERSISTENT HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE ISLAND NEAR THE END OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD OR CERTAINLY BEYOND THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1898 6652 1898 6378 1746 6378 1746 6652
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