Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 252037
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/15 2036Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2015Z  JS
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LOCATION...FAR W ARKANSAS/S CENT TO NE TEXAS/S CENT TO E-SE OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGES FOR EVOLUTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE LAST MESSAGE, SATELLITE SIGNATURE
HAS BLOSSOMED INTO LARGE MCS WHILE SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESO-ANALYSIS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE S PORTION OF THE COMPLEX WITH THE GREATEST
OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHERE S-SE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT ENCOUNTERS DEVELOPING RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY. ANALYSIS AND
GOES-SOUNDER DATA REVEAL A LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY/CAPE
PRESENT ALONG THE S AND SE PERIPHERY OF THE GROWING MCS WITH PRONOUNCED
DRIER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS IMPINGING ON THE W-SW FLANK WHICH IS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE UNSTABLE PROFILES. FARTHER TO THE N,
WATCHING PARENT MCV LIFTING TO THE N AND NE INTO SW OK WHILE ACCOMPANYING
PROGRESSIVE QLCS STEADILY ADVANCES TO THE E AND NE ACROSS N TX/S OK. THE
ITEMS OF NOTE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THIS PORTION OF THE COMPLEX
INCLUDE THE NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LINE ORIENTED W-E NOW
MOVING N OF THE RED RIVER INTO S-SE OK WHICH APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO
A SUBTLE SLUG OF GREATER WARM ADVECTION CENTERED ROUGHLY AT THE 850MB
LEVEL. A BIT OF A SFC REFLECTION IS SEEN AS WELL HERE WITH OBJECTIVELY
DERIVED SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX NOSING NE FROM N CENT TX INTO
S CENT/SE OK. ANOTHER FEATURE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY AID IN FOCUSING
AND/OR SERVING AS A TRACK FOR THE CONVECTION IS THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SEEN IN LONGER TIME DURATION VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SINKING TO
THE SE ACROSS NE OK/FAR NW AR/S MO. RECENT IMAGES APPEAR TO SHOW IT
DIMINISHING SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF IT WILL STILL BE A FACTOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, CERTAINLY GIVEN THE LARGE MCS AFFECTING AREAS
WITH RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES FROM S CENT-SE AND E OK SOUTHWARD ALL THE
WAY TO S CENT TX, EXPECT A CONTINUED HIGH LIKELIHOOD/HIGH IMPACT HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WHICH FOLLOWS ALONG FROM EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE AND WPC
MPD. THE CONTINUED TREND FOR THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW/CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSEQUENT BACK BUILDING CERTAINLY FAVORS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER S
CENT TX IN REGION CLOSE TO SAN ANTONIO WITH THREAT STRETCHING FARTHER
TO THE NE ACROSS CENT-E CENT TX (POSSIBLY TO  NEAR AND E-SE OF WACO)
AS THE LINE/AXIS OF NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING. GIVEN THIS SITUATION, THE AXIS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  FARTHER TO THE N AND NE, A SHORTER DURATION THREAT EXISTS
WITH PARENT MCV(SW OK) AND ATTENDANT COLD POOL DRIVEN QLCS PROPAGATING
STEADILY TO THE E AND NE ACROSS FAR N CENT-NE TX/S CENT-SE OK-E OK. AS
STATED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH, THE GREATER THREAT IN THIS AREA IS DUE TO
A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THE W-E EXTENSION OF
WARM ADVECTION INDUCED ACTIVITY NOSING INTO S CENT-SE OK WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THE OLD DECAYING OUTFLOW OVER NE OK/NW AR COULD COME INTO
PLAY BY STEERING/ENHANCING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
E OK INTO AR.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3591 9690 3573 9502 3474 9432 3254 9469 3063 9572
2944 9795 2993 9921 3229 9752 3355 9729 3512 9811

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