Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 021248
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0648 MDT Thursday, October 2, 2014

This forecast is for Thursday, October 2, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 45.5 F/7.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 646 ft/min (3.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 15428 ft MSL (8670 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 54.0 F/12.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1115 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12110 ft MSL (5352 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 10/03....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Poor
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 14393 ft MSL (7635 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 10/03.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:55:57 / 18:41:35 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 45 min 38 sec (705 min 38 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:48:17 MDT... 47.30 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/02/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 8708 ft MSL (1950 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11249 ft MSL (4491 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12547 ft MSL (5789 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -0.1
K index......................... +16.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.6 -71.7   270   37   19   2.1   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -54.2 -65.6   260   41   21   2.8   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -50.0 -58.0   300   33   17   2.8   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -48.8 -55.8   310   33   17   1.6   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -47.8 -54.0   315   33   17   1.6   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -46.6 -51.9   315   32   17   3.6   2.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -44.2 -47.6   310   28   15   3.5   1.9      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -41.8 -43.2   305   25   13   5.7   3.1   28.9  83.9    12.8      M    M
 29000  -40.0 -40.0   290   23   12   5.7   3.1   27.2  81.0    11.6      M    M
 28000  -38.3 -36.9   280   22   12   5.7   3.1   25.7  78.2    10.6      M    M
 27000  -36.6 -33.9   270   22   12   6.6   3.6   24.3  75.8     9.7      M    M
 26000  -34.5 -30.1   260   23   12   7.0   3.8   23.2  73.7     8.8      M    M
 25000  -32.4 -26.3   255   23   12   7.0   3.8   22.2  71.9     8.1      M    M
 24000  -30.3 -22.5   250   24   12   7.0   3.9   21.3  70.3     7.5      M    M
 23000  -28.2 -18.8   245   23   12   7.1   3.9   20.2  68.4     6.7      M    M
 22000  -26.0 -14.8   245   22   12   7.1   3.9   19.3  66.7     5.9      M    M
 21000  -24.0 -11.2   240   21   11   5.8   3.2   18.4  65.0     5.2      M    M
 20000  -22.4  -8.3   245   19   10   5.6   3.1   16.8  62.3     3.9      M    M
 19500  -21.5  -6.7   245   18    9   5.6   3.1   16.1  61.0     3.3      M    M
 19000  -20.7  -5.3   245   17    9   5.7   3.1   15.4  59.7     2.7      M    M
 18500  -19.9  -3.8   250   16    8   7.7   4.3   14.8  58.7     2.1      M    M
 18000  -18.5  -1.3   255   15    8   9.0   4.9   14.7  58.4     2.0      M    M
 17500  -17.2   1.0   265   14    7   9.0   4.9   14.6  58.3     1.9      M    M
 17000  -16.0   3.2   280   12    6   7.2   3.9   14.3  57.7     1.6      M    M
 16500  -14.9   5.2   295   11    6   7.4   4.1   13.9  57.0     1.2      M    M
 16000  -13.9   7.0   315   11    6   6.2   3.4   13.4  56.1     0.8      M    M
 15500  -12.6   9.3   330   14    7   6.0   3.3   12.5  54.5    -0.1    741  3.8
 15000  -11.6  11.1   335   17    9   7.0   3.8   12.0  53.5    -0.5    697  3.5
 14500  -10.5  13.1   335   20   10   6.8   3.8   11.5  52.7    -1.0    651  3.3
 14000   -9.5  14.9   335   23   12   7.1   3.9   11.0  51.9    -1.4    605  3.1
 13500   -8.4  16.9   335   25   13   7.1   3.9   10.6  51.1    -1.8    558  2.8
 13000   -7.4  18.7   335   26   13   7.0   3.9   10.2  50.3    -2.2    512  2.6
 12500   -6.4  20.5   335   26   13   7.2   3.9    9.7  49.5    -2.7    467  2.4
 12000   -5.4  22.3   340   26   13   6.1   3.4    9.2  48.6    -3.2    424  2.2
 11750   -5.0  23.0   340   25   13   6.8   3.7    9.0  48.2    -3.5    403  2.0
 11500   -4.5  23.9   340   25   13   6.5   3.6    8.7  47.7    -3.8    382  1.9
 11250   -4.0  24.8   340   24   12   7.1   3.9    8.5  47.3    -4.1    360  1.8
 11000   -3.5  25.7   340   24   12   6.5   3.6    8.3  46.9    -4.3    338  1.7
 10750   -3.1  26.4   340   24   12   5.6   3.1    8.0  46.4    -4.6    318  1.6
 10500   -2.7  27.1   340   23   12   5.9   3.2    7.7  45.8    -5.0    298  1.5
 10250   -2.3  27.9   340   23   12   5.6   3.1    7.4  45.3    -5.3    279  1.4
 10000   -1.9  28.6   345   23   12   5.3   2.9    7.0  44.7    -5.7    260  1.3
  9750   -1.5  29.3   345   23   12   5.7   3.1    6.7  44.1    -6.0    241  1.2
  9500   -1.1  30.0   350   23   12   6.1   3.3    6.4  43.5    -6.4    221  1.1
  9250   -0.7  30.7   350   23   12   5.3   2.9    6.1  43.0    -6.7    201  1.0
  9000   -0.4  31.3   350   22   12   4.3   2.4    5.7  42.3    -7.1    184  0.9
  8750   -0.0  32.0   350   22   11   5.5   3.0    5.3  41.6    -7.5    166  0.8
  8500    0.4  32.7   350   22   11   6.4   3.5    5.1  41.1    -7.8    146  0.7
  8250    0.8  33.4   350   21   11   6.5   3.6    4.8  40.6    -8.2    126  0.6
  8000    1.3  34.3   350   20   10   6.1   3.4    4.6  40.2    -8.4    104  0.5
  7750    1.8  35.2   345   19   10   8.1   4.4    4.3  39.8    -8.7     83  0.4
  7500    2.4  36.3   345   17    9   6.5   3.5    4.2  39.6    -8.9     57  0.3
  7250    2.6  36.7   345   15    8   1.7   0.9    4.1  39.4    -9.0     42  0.2
  7000    2.8  37.0   345   13    7   3.6   2.0    4.0  39.1    -9.1     30  0.2
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/02/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/02/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +1.5  LI... +3.5                | K index... -36.9  LI... +5.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.8 -72.0  280  33 17   1.9   1.1 | -59.4 -74.9  285  43 22   2.3   1.3
 45000 -55.0 -67.0  290  37 19   1.6   0.9 | -56.2 -69.2  300  55 28   0.6   0.4
 40000 -52.7 -62.9  320  40 21   1.6   0.9 | -55.3 -67.5  325  63 33   0.6   0.4
 38000 -51.6 -60.9  330  47 24   1.8   1.0 | -54.0 -65.2  325  65 33   2.8   1.5
 36000 -50.5 -58.9  340  56 29   1.8   1.0 | -52.3 -62.1  325  65 33   2.8   1.5
 34000 -48.7 -55.7  345  63 32   6.3   3.5 | -49.4 -56.9  330  65 33   8.6   4.7
 32000 -44.3 -47.7  350  62 32   6.4   3.5 | -43.6 -46.5  330  65 33   8.6   4.7
 30000 -40.2 -40.4  355  62 32   7.5   4.1 | -38.7 -37.7  335  62 32   7.8   4.3
 29000 -38.0 -36.4  355  62 32   7.5   4.1 | -36.3 -33.3  335  58 30   7.8   4.3
 28000 -35.7 -32.3  355  62 32   7.5   4.1 | -34.0 -29.2  335  55 28   7.8   4.3
 27000 -33.5 -28.3  355  61 32   6.9   3.8 | -31.7 -25.1  335  52 27   6.8   3.7
 26000 -31.5 -24.7  355  59 30   6.9   3.8 | -29.7 -21.5  335  49 25   6.8   3.8
 25000 -29.4 -20.9  355  57 29   6.9   3.8 | -27.6 -17.7  340  47 24   6.8   3.8
 24000 -27.3 -17.1  355  54 28   6.7   3.7 | -25.5 -13.9  340  45 23   7.1   3.9
 23000 -25.3 -13.5  350  51 26   6.6   3.6 | -23.4 -10.1  340  44 23   7.1   3.9
 22000 -23.3  -9.9  350  47 24   6.7   3.7 | -21.3  -6.3  340  43 22   7.1   3.9
 21000 -21.4  -6.5  345  42 22   5.1   2.8 | -19.3  -2.7  340  42 22   5.8   3.2
 20000 -19.9  -3.8  345  36 19   5.1   2.8 | -17.5   0.5  340  40 20   5.9   3.2
 19500 -19.2  -2.6  340  33 17   5.1   2.8 | -16.6   2.1  340  39 20   5.9   3.2
 19000 -18.4  -1.1  340  30 16   5.2   2.8 | -15.7   3.7  340  37 19   5.8   3.2
 18500 -17.6   0.3  335  27 14   4.8   2.7 | -14.8   5.4  340  36 19   6.5   3.6
 18000 -16.9   1.6  330  24 12   4.8   2.6 | -13.8   7.2  340  35 18   6.5   3.6
 17500 -16.2   2.8  325  21 11   5.2   2.9 | -12.8   9.0  335  35 18   6.3   3.4
 17000 -15.3   4.5  320  19 10   6.7   3.7 | -11.9  10.6  335  33 17   5.9   3.2
 16500 -14.4   6.1  315  18  9   6.6   3.6 | -11.0  12.2  335  32 16   6.0   3.3
 16000 -13.3   8.1  310  17  9   7.9   4.3 | -10.3  13.5  335  30 15   4.1   2.2
 15500 -11.6  11.1  310  17  9   7.8   4.3 |  -9.3  15.3  335  26 13   4.4   2.4
 15000 -10.4  13.3  315  18  9   7.5   4.1 |  -8.6  16.5  330  23 12   5.0   2.7
 14500  -9.3  15.3  315  18  9   7.6   4.2 |  -7.9  17.8  330  22 11   4.9   2.7
 14000  -8.3  17.1  320  19 10   6.3   3.5 |  -7.1  19.2  325  20 11   5.8   3.2
 13500  -7.3  18.9  325  19 10   6.5   3.6 |  -6.2  20.8  325  20 10   5.7   3.1
 13000  -6.4  20.5  330  20 10   5.9   3.2 |  -5.4  22.3  320  19 10   6.1   3.3
 12500  -5.6  21.9  335  21 11   6.2   3.4 |  -4.5  23.9  320  19 10   6.3   3.5
 12000  -4.8  23.4  335  22 11   4.5   2.5 |  -3.7  25.3  320  19 10   5.0   2.8
 11750  -4.5  23.9  340  22 11   5.4   3.0 |  -3.4  25.9  320  19 10   5.5   3.0
 11500  -4.1  24.6  340  22 11   5.3   2.9 |  -3.0  26.6  320  19 10   5.6   3.1
 11250  -3.7  25.3  340  22 11   4.9   2.7 |  -2.6  27.3  320  19 10   5.1   2.8
 11000  -3.4  25.9  345  22 11   4.9   2.7 |  -2.3  27.9  320  18  9   6.2   3.4
 10750  -3.0  26.6  345  21 11   5.4   3.0 |  -1.8  28.8  320  17  9   7.6   4.1
 10500  -2.7  27.1  345  21 11   5.2   2.9 |  -1.3  29.7  320  16  8   7.3   4.0
 10250  -2.3  27.9  345  21 11   5.4   3.0 |  -0.7  30.7  325  16  8   7.4   4.0
 10000  -1.9  28.6  345  22 11   5.9   3.2 |  -0.2  31.6  325  14  7   8.5   4.7
  9750  -1.4  29.5  345  23 12   6.8   3.7 |   0.5  32.9  325  14  7  10.5   5.8
  9500  -0.9  30.4  345  23 12   7.2   4.0 |   1.3  34.3  325  13  7  11.1   6.1
  9250  -0.4  31.3  345  24 12   6.2   3.4 |   2.1  35.8  330  12  6   9.6   5.3
  9000   0.0  32.0  340  22 12   4.8   2.7 |   2.7  36.9  330  12  6   8.4   4.6
  8750   0.4  32.7  340  21 11   7.4   4.1 |   3.4  38.1  330  12  6  10.5   5.7
  8500   1.0  33.8  335  19 10   9.1   5.0 |   4.3  39.7  330  12  6  11.6   6.3
  8250   1.6  34.9  335  17  9   7.7   4.2 |   5.1  41.2  330  12  6  10.6   5.8
  8000   2.1  35.8  335  15  8   7.2   4.0 |   5.9  42.6  330  12  6  10.3   5.7
  7750   2.6  36.7  330  13  7   8.6   4.7 |   6.7  44.1  330  11  6  10.9   6.0
  7500   3.3  37.9  330  12  6   9.3   5.1 |   7.5  45.5  335  11  6  12.7   6.9
  7250   4.0  39.2  330  11  6   8.4   4.6 |   8.5  47.3  335  11  5  13.6   7.5
  7000   4.6  40.3  330  10  5   9.2   5.1 |   9.5  49.1  335  10  5  12.9   7.1
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           10/02/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/02/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +4.4  LI... +4.7                | K index... +11.4  LI... +2.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.3 -76.5  280  53 27   2.2   1.2 | -59.8 -75.6  285  59 30   1.9   1.1
 45000 -56.9 -70.4  290  63 32   2.4   1.3 | -57.1 -70.8  295  75 39   0.7   0.4
 40000 -53.3 -63.9  315  64 33   2.4   1.3 | -56.1 -69.0  320  76 39   0.7   0.4
 38000 -52.5 -62.5  320  67 35   1.0   0.6 | -54.6 -66.3  325  79 41   3.1   1.7
 36000 -51.9 -61.4  320  70 36   1.0   0.6 | -52.7 -62.9  325  82 42   3.1   1.7
 34000 -50.0 -58.0  320  71 37   7.1   3.9 | -49.7 -57.5  325  83 43   8.1   4.4
 32000 -45.2 -49.4  320  67 34   7.1   3.9 | -44.3 -47.7  325  83 43   8.0   4.4
 30000 -40.5 -40.9  320  61 31   8.7   4.8 | -39.5 -39.1  325  77 40   7.8   4.3
 29000 -37.9 -36.2  320  57 30   8.7   4.8 | -37.2 -35.0  325  72 37   7.8   4.3
 28000 -35.3 -31.5  320  54 28   8.7   4.8 | -34.9 -30.8  325  67 35   7.8   4.3
 27000 -32.7 -26.9  320  51 26   8.1   4.5 | -32.5 -26.5  320  61 32   8.4   4.6
 26000 -30.3 -22.5  320  50 26   8.2   4.5 | -29.9 -21.8  315  55 28   8.4   4.6
 25000 -27.8 -18.0  320  49 25   8.2   4.5 | -27.4 -17.3  305  50 26   8.4   4.6
 24000 -25.4 -13.7  320  46 24   8.0   4.4 | -25.0 -13.0  300  47 24   7.5   4.1
 23000 -23.0  -9.4  320  42 21   8.0   4.4 | -22.7  -8.9  305  49 25   7.6   4.2
 22000 -20.6  -5.1  320  37 19   8.0   4.4 | -20.5  -4.9  310  52 27   7.6   4.2
 21000 -18.3  -0.9  320  35 18   6.8   3.7 | -18.4  -1.1  315  52 27   5.6   3.1
 20000 -16.3   2.7  320  37 19   6.9   3.8 | -16.8   1.8  315  47 24   5.7   3.1
 19500 -15.2   4.6  320  38 19   6.9   3.8 | -15.9   3.4  315  45 23   5.8   3.2
 19000 -14.2   6.4  320  39 20   7.2   3.9 | -15.1   4.8  315  43 22   5.8   3.2
 18500 -13.3   8.1  325  39 20   4.9   2.7 | -14.2   6.4  315  42 21   6.0   3.3
 18000 -12.6   9.3  325  39 20   5.2   2.8 | -13.3   8.1  320  40 21   6.0   3.3
 17500 -11.8  10.8  325  38 20   5.5   3.0 | -12.4   9.7  320  39 20   5.7   3.1
 17000 -10.9  12.4  325  37 19   5.8   3.2 | -11.6  11.1  320  38 19   5.6   3.1
 16500 -10.0  14.0  325  36 19   5.9   3.2 | -10.7  12.7  320  36 19   5.7   3.1
 16000  -9.1  15.6  325  35 18   6.0   3.3 |  -9.3  15.3  320  34 18   6.6   3.6
 15500  -7.7  18.1  320  33 17   5.9   3.2 |  -8.3  17.1  315  33 17   6.9   3.8
 15000  -6.9  19.6  320  31 16   5.4   3.0 |  -7.2  19.0  310  31 16   7.4   4.1
 14500  -6.1  21.0  315  30 15   5.4   3.0 |  -6.1  21.0  305  29 15   7.7   4.2
 14000  -5.3  22.5  310  28 14   5.3   2.9 |  -4.9  23.2  300  27 14   9.0   5.0
 13500  -4.6  23.7  305  27 14   5.4   3.0 |  -3.6  25.5  295  25 13   9.0   4.9
 13000  -3.7  25.3  300  24 12   6.6   3.6 |  -2.3  27.9  295  22 11   8.4   4.6
 12500  -2.8  27.0  295  20 10   6.7   3.7 |  -1.1  30.0  290  19 10   9.4   5.2
 12000  -1.7  28.9  290  17  9   8.5   4.7 |   0.1  32.2  285  17  9   6.7   3.7
 11750  -1.1  30.0  295  15  8   8.2   4.5 |   0.6  33.1  285  15  8   7.1   3.9
 11500  -0.5  31.1  295  13  7   8.2   4.5 |   1.2  34.2  285  13  7   7.3   4.0
 11250   0.1  32.2  295  11  6   8.3   4.6 |   1.7  35.1  285  11  6   6.4   3.5
 11000   0.7  33.3  295  10  5   9.3   5.1 |   2.1  35.8  285  10  5   6.7   3.7
 10750   1.5  34.7  300   9  5   9.8   5.4 |   2.7  36.9  285   8  4   7.8   4.3
 10500   2.2  36.0  305   8  4   9.9   5.4 |   3.3  37.9  285   6  3   7.6   4.2
 10250   2.9  37.2  310   7  4   9.1   5.0 |   3.8  38.8  285   5  2   7.5   4.1
 10000   3.6  38.5  310   7  4   9.1   5.0 |   4.4  39.9  285   4  2   7.9   4.3
  9750   4.3  39.7  315   7  4  10.5   5.7 |   5.0  41.0  295   3  2   8.7   4.8
  9500   5.1  41.2  320   7  3  10.6   5.8 |   5.7  42.3  310   2  1   8.8   4.8
  9250   5.9  42.6  320   6  3   9.7   5.3 |   6.3  43.3  335   1  1   8.3   4.6
  9000   6.6  43.9  320   6  3   9.0   4.9 |   6.9  44.4  345   1  1   8.0   4.4
  8750   7.3  45.1  325   6  3  10.3   5.6 |   7.5  45.5  005   1  1   9.7   5.3
  8500   8.1  46.6  325   6  3  11.0   6.0 |   8.3  46.9  030   1  1  10.6   5.8
  8250   8.9  48.0  330   6  3  10.4   5.7 |   9.1  48.4  045   2  1   9.7   5.3
  8000   9.6  49.3  330   6  3  10.7   5.9 |   9.8  49.6  050   2  1   9.5   5.2
  7750  10.4  50.7  330   6  3   9.3   5.1 |  10.5  50.9  055   2  1   9.5   5.2
  7500  11.1  52.0  335   5  3  10.3   5.6 |  11.2  52.2  060   2  1   7.2   3.9
  7250  12.0  53.6  340   5  3  13.4   7.3 |  11.6  52.9  055   2  1   5.1   2.8
  7000  13.0  55.4  345   5  3  12.1   6.7 |  12.0  53.6  050   2  1   6.3   3.4
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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