093
FXUS61 KCLE 161930
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure departs to the east this evening before another
low pressure system impacts the area on Friday and Saturday.
Brief high pressure builds across the area Saturday night
through Monday before another low pressure system impacts the
region midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough moves across the northern Great Lakes
while a separate upper-level trough over the southern Plains
moves eastward south of our forecast area. Forcing from both of
these troughs will result in showers and thunderstorms moving in
from the west late tonight through Friday morning. This should
be a sizable swath of soaking rain, so have increased PoPs to
60-70%. Showers linger but become more scattered during the day
on Friday. PoPs gradually decrease from the north Friday
evening/night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A very weak closed/cut-off low aloft and associated weak surface
reflection will be moving across the northern Ohio Valley Saturday
into Saturday evening. Sufficient low-level moisture will remain on
Saturday for weak to modest, uncapped instability to develop with
daytime heating. There will be some forcing from the weak closed
low, though ultimately feel shower / storm development will mainly
be driven by subtle low-level convergence zones, such as the lake
breeze and weak hilltop convergence. This all adds up to most of the
area being highlighted for a 30-50% "chance" of showers / storms
Saturday afternoon and early evening, with greatest potential across
the hillier terrain from the Mid Ohio region points east-northeast
across interior Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with relatively lower
chances towards Toledo and especially over the lake. There is not
expected to be enough shear or instability for severe weather on
Saturday, though one or two stronger pulse storms may become capable
of small hail or gusty winds. Slow cell motions could lead to
locally heavy downpours but with a low flood concern overall.

Outside of the isolated to scattered showers and storms on Saturday
partly sunny skies are expected. Shower and thunder chances will
exit to the southeast Saturday night, with a dry Sunday and Sunday
night expected as a shortwave ridge aloft and weak high pressure at
the surface slide through the region, leading to partly to mostly
sunny skies for Sunday. Highs Saturday will generally be in the 70s,
with around 80 possible along I-75 if clouds / rain aren`t more
widespread than expected. Lows will generally dip into the 50s
Saturday night, with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Lows Sunday night will range from the low to mid 50s in
far eastern OH and northwestern PA to near 60 along/west of
I-71.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge will build over the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday ahead of
an upper trough and associated cold front that will enter and cross
through the region on Wednesday. This will lead to a very warm first
half of next week, with 80s expected to be common for highs on
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be knocked back
into the 70s for highs on Thursday behind the front.

Confidence is increasing that much of the Monday and Monday night
periods will remain dry, as ridging aloft will act to cap the region
with forcing still well off to the west. It is possible that
upstream convection spreads into Northwest Ohio later Monday night,
though it will be moving into a dry and stable airmass and
outrunning any forcing closer to the front to the west. Overall POPs
have trended down over the last couple of cycles from Monday and
Monday night and are rather minimal now. The front and main upper
trough will still be to our west on Tuesday, though a more moist and
unstable airmass combined with the main upper ridge axis beginning
to shift east may yield greater potential for showers and thunder
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially if organized
activity can develop upstream and move in. Confidence in any rain
potential Tuesday and Tuesday evening is still low and it is
possible we remain mainly dry. Confidence increases that at least
scattered showers / storms will spread in from the west late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the cold front and upper trough finally move
into and across the region. Thursday should trend mainly dry. Some
more organized thunderstorms could be possible along or ahead of the
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the timing of the
front may prove pivotal to any severe weather potential locally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is observed areawide, though isolated MVFR ceilings may be
possible for next hour or two in parts of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Rain showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms moves in from the west tonight, moving east across
the area through Friday morning. This will likely produce at
least MVFR visibilities and ceilings areawide with pockets of
IFR conditions. Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected
during the afternoon on Friday.

Winds will generally be light and variable, except for KCLE and
KERI when a lake breeze develops this afternoon and briefly
increase winds to 5-10 knots from the north-northeast. South to
southwest winds of 7-9 knots develops Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain generally easterly tonight before shifting south-
southeast on Friday as a warm front lifts north of Lake Erie. Winds
will turn east-northeast Saturday and Saturday night as weak low
pressure moves across the Ohio Valley, with winds remaining
generally east-northeast through Sunday. Winds will turn more
southerly Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front taking shape well
to our west, with this front expected to cross the lake on
Wednesday. Winds and waves will remain mild and below headline
criteria through early next week. Winds and waves may become a bit
more elevated as the front moves through on Wednesday, though
confidence is low that far out. A few thunderstorms are possible
over the lake late tonight and Friday morning. There will be a
limited risk of storms over the lake Friday afternoon and evening
and again Saturday afternoon (greater risk inland). Higher potential
for thunderstorms over the lake may arrive along or just ahead of
the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan