962
FXUS64 KLCH 190457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Inherited fcst package has been holding steady and no updates were
needed or are planned.

Expect areas of fog to develop over very saturated ground tonight.
A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed - most primarily over Texas
counties and southwest Louisiana parishes by morning.

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge over the region,
with light and variable to calm winds noted across the area. An
exiting mid to upper level trough to our east has ended all the
precipitation areawide, except for a sliver of the far coastal
waters where scattered thunderstorms continue. This will gradually
clear out this evening. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
areawide, with temperatures near 90 over Southeast Texas still
possible this afternoon.

For tonight, clear skies expected with nearly calm winds. This
coupled with the moist ground from the recent rainfall, areas of
fog quite likely, with the possibility being dense towards daybreak.
The highest likelihood of this occurring will be across Southeast
Texas and Western Louisiana along and north of I-10. Short term
guidance still in question on areal extent of this and duration.
Due to this, holding off on a Dense Fog Advisory at this time
until trends and guidance becomes more consistent.

For Sunday through Monday night, a dry northwest flow aloft
expected between the exiting mid to upper level trough to the
east and a building mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico.
Not expecting any precipitation, but a gradual increase in
temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the increased
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, maximum heat index values in
the mid 90s expected each afternoon. The calendar may say spring,
but summer has arrived.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)

The start of the long range continues with relatively dry weather
locally across SETX and SWLA as broad high-pressure ridging extends
over Appalachia down SW across the northern Gulf of Mexico. That
pattern will facilitate warm temperatures with mostly sunny skies
trending into Wednesday. Meanwhile an upstream shortwave remains
relatively broad with no signals of amplification to generate
significant forcing down to the Gulf Coast as the associated sfc low
lifts from the Midwest into the northern Great Lakes region by
Wednesday night. Naturally, a the cold front becomes stationary and
settles north of the ARKLATEX region by Thursday. Given the
southerly wind regime, very isolated pop-up like shower / storms are
not out of the question to the south of the boundary, however, they
will be limited by low level subsidence / inversion layer from the
ridging, now over the SECONUS and western Atlantic. Friday, the
boundary lifts across the TN Valley with continued dry weather
favored over SETX and SWLA amid daytime temperatures climbing into
the low 90s for many inland locations. Various forecast signals
indicate this relatively drier pattern, compared to the last couple
weeks, may continue into the following weekend which is congruent
with the latest CPC 6-10 day climatological guidance.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Little change from previous TAF thinking, with fog expected to be
the primary aviation concern overnight. So far, visbys remain at
least P6SM, but conditions are favorable for fog development.
Guidance continues to be mixed regarding how much visibilities
could fall overnight, so did not stray much from previous
forecast. Still anticipate prevailing MVFR visbys after 9-10Z,
with occasional IFR to LIFR reductions possible around daybreak.
Conditions expected to improve to VFR through 13-14Z, with
FEW/SCT CU developing during the day and light winds to prevail.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms 40 to 60 nautical miles south
of Atchafalaya Bay will continue to diminish this evening. Light
onshore flow and low seas expected through Monday with no precipitation.
Winds and seas expected to increase Tuesday through Thursday due
to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high to the
east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  71  89  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  72  89  71  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24