515
FXUS64 KAMA 071850
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
150 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Today the main upper trough has ejected eastward and zonal flow
has taken its place across the region. A rising thermal gradient
is expected today, with the aid of downsloping winds. Tomorrow, a
couple of surface lows will traverse across the High Plains and
frontal boundaries will be generated ahead of these features. Low
level winds will switch from the north and remain that way
throughout most of the day.

Critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon
today. RFTI values up to 8 are expected to be met based off of
very low RH values and strong, southwesterly surface winds. Today
the wind speeds will be slightly lower that what was experienced
yesterday, but gusts can still reach 40 mph or greater in some
areas within the western combined Panhandles. RH recovery has been
minimal behind yesterday`s surface trough/dryline, so minimum RH
percentages will be in the single digits for many places in the
Panhandles today. With 850 mb temperatures rising above 20
degrees Celsius, we should see a plethora of surface highs in the
80`s today, even some upper 80`s for the southern Texas Panhandle
and Canadian River Valley.

Tomorrow, some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
may be present again for the far western Panhandles, but with
sustained winds being northerly and generally light, fire weather
products are not being considered at this time. With the passing
of the fronts, high temperatures will be slightly reduced for the
CWA. The southern half will see highs in the lower 80`s, and the
northern zones will see highs drop to the 70`s.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A dry start to the long term forecast period as WSW H500 flow
continues across the Panhandles in the wake of a passing cold
front with cooling temperatures in its wake. High temperatures on
Thursday and Friday will be slightly below average for early May.

Going into the coming weekend through early next week, our rain
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase. Latest 07/12Z
model and numerical guidance shows a cut off low developing from
a deepening H500 positive tilted trough near the Four Corners
Region. As the main cut off low drifts southeast and ingest decent
H850-700 theta-e and sfc moisture transport, this should aid our
rain chances overall across the Panhandles as the main system
tracks directly over the Panhandles by the second half of the
weekend. At this time, instability looks rather limited with the
main low`s track. But still cant rule out some general
thunderstorms with colder air aloft. But none-the-less, rain
chances through the end of the forecast period is good news for
all (although PoPs at this time are at or less than 40%). High
temperatures this weekend into early next week will remain near to
slightly below average for this time of year.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Changing wind speeds and direction at the surface will be the
primary focus for this new TAF period, as the flight category is
not expected to change from VFR for the next 24 hours. Strong,
southwesterly winds are forecast to begin this afternoon and will
peak near 20Z. Winds will decrease later on tonight and change
directions after a surface front moves through all terminal sites.
Light northerly winds are anticipated behind the front heading into
the morning hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  81  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              41  74  42  67 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  50  83  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  83  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  48  82  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               53  82  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 41  78  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  76  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  82  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  79  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   49  80  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                53  82  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              54  82  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-
     006>008-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55