Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281028
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough moves eastward across the region this
afternoon into the early evening. High pressure attempts to
build over the area tonight as a warm front approaches from the
southwest. Low pressure moves eastward across the Ohio Valley
on Saturday with its cold front crossing the region Saturday
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Only a few middle level clouds remain across the CWA to the east
of Cleveland. This area of clouds has been shrinking in coverage
and expect this trend to continue.

A weak surface trough will cross the region today with a little
bit of upper level jet energy assisting with some lift by late
afternoon into the evening. There should at least be an increase
in cloud cover with the increased lift. Not all that much
moisture to lift but cant completely rule out a few sprinkles
near and south of a line from Findlay to Canton. High pressure
attempts to ridge into the region overnight as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. Highs today range from the mid
40`s across inland NW PA to the lower 50`s. Lows tonight should
be in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s.

A warm front moves closer to the region on Friday with warmer
temperatures expected across the southwestern CWA. Not all that
much cloud cover to filter the sunshine. Highs are expected to
range from the 40`s across NE OH into NW PA to the upper 50`s
across the southwestern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Early Friday night will continue to be influenced by high pressure
keeping conditions dry. A low pressure centered near the southern
edge of Lake Michigan will move a warm front north across the area
late Friday night into Saturday morning, allowing widespread rain
showers to gradually build in. Models continue to suggest this
boundary stalling near the southern shore of Lake Erie and acting as
a path for the aforementioned low to move east across the area on
Saturday. With decent upper level support from a shortwave and mid-
level frontogenesis, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon, especially across the southern tier of counties where
dewpoints climb into the 50s. Additionally, areas extending from
Toledo southeast to near Akron/Canton will see rainfall totals near
0.5-0.7, but areas of heavier rain may see locally higher totals.
Not expecting many impacts from this rain other than some localized
ponding and slight rises in rivers.

By Saturday night, the aforementioned low will depart to the east of
the area, allowing for showers to gradually diminish west to east by
Sunday morning. A brief nose of high pressure will allow for a
primarily dry Sunday, although it will remain cloudy. Sunday night,
the potential for showers returns as another warm front associated
with a developing low pressure over the Great Plains moves north
towards the area. Exact timing of this front diverges a bit between
models, but expect widespread rain showers by Monday morning.

Overnight lows through the period will linger in the low 40s for the
most part with daytime highs on Saturday climbing into the mid to
upper 50s and highs on Sunday climbing into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The bulk of the long term period will be impacted by a low pressure
system that moves into the region. In the upper levels, a trough is
expected to push south across the western US, allowing for continued
support of a low pressure at the surface. Initially on Monday, a
warm front across the area with strong frontogensis will allow for
widespread showers the entire day. Most models do suggest a push of
shortwave energy moving across the area Monday afternoon, which
would help shower development and even add the potential for a few
thunderstorms. This front again looks to stall near the area again,
acting as another path for the aforementioned low to track east
across the Ohio River Valley. There is a bit of model divergence in
the exact track this low will take, but one way or the other expect
showers with scattered thunderstorms into Tuesday night with light
showers still possible Wednesday with a lingering trough over the
area.

Highs on Monday will be the warmest as they climb into the upper 50s
to low 60s, gradually cooling by Wednesday to be in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend, beginning in
the 40s but cooling into the 30s by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions expected everywhere through the TAF period.
There will be some middle level cloud cover that attempts to
lower to maybe 5000 feet or so this evening into the overnight
near and south of a KFDY to KCAK line. Cant rule out a passing
sprinkle in this area either.

Light and variable winds are expected through mid morning. As a
surface trough crosses the region winds increase from the west
reaching 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts maybe reaching 20 to 25
knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and/or lower ceilings on
Saturday, then lingering across NE OH into NW PA into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon/evening and
on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds of 5-10 knots this morning will become southwesterly at 5-
15 knots by this afternoon as high pressure builds over the area.
Tonight winds shift to become northwesterly at 5-10 knots, generally
remaining between the northwest and west through Friday. On Friday
night into Saturday, a warm front will approach the lake from the
south,but stall near the souther lakeshore. As a result, winds will
become easterly at 5-15 knots. This boundary will act as a path for
a low pressure system to move east along through the day Saturday,
which will result in variable winds throughout the day of 5-10
knots. By Saturday night, the aforementioned low will move east,
allowing for a northwest flow of 5-10 knots to become established
through Sunday. Another warm front approaches from the south late
Sunday into Monday, resulting in another period of east-northeast
winds of 5-15 knots through Monday night. The parent low associated
with this boundary will move east across the region on Tuesday,
resulting in increased winds and the potential need for marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Campbell


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