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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231102 AAE
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The over-detailed, low confidence/severe weather risk discussion
below still looks reasonable (outside of the length) with any
10%-30% chances for measurable rainfall remaining confined
generally from the Big Country late today, to areas along the Red
River Valley and northeast counties. Breezy to windy with gusty
southerly winds 10 to 20 mph, primarily during the diurnal hours
of the day.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday & Wednesday/

Cool and dry conditions are expected through sunrise. Outside of
a few passing high clouds within northwest flow aloft, initially
plentiful sunshine will briefly greet everyone at sunrise. The
early morning sunshine will be short-lived as strong south-
southwesterly winds of 45-55 kts a few thousand feet above the
surface draw low level moisture quickly northeastward. A band of
low clouds currently moving into the Hill Country will surge north
with the aid of this LLJ and move into the area by mid morning.
Moisture below the stout elevated mixed layer (EML/Cap aloft)
based around 875mb is anticipated to be relatively shallow. This
should result in the scattering, then eastward shift of the
morning low clouds into eastern Central Texas and East Texas by
lunchtime. A strong mid level disturbance arriving from the
northwest late this afternoon is expected to support a cold front
southward into South Plains/western Big Country. This front will
extend northeast into Central and Southwest Oklahoma by this
evening, but likely stall just north of the Red River and
northwest of our eastern Big Country areas north of I-20 and west
west of I-35/35W. Discrete storm development is expected along the
front, particularly west of a Wichita Falls to Abilene and San
Angelo line. This will be an area with much hotter afternoon
temperatures and thus, a more elevated and much weaker EML/cap and
better threat for supercell thunderstorms and severe weather.

Increasingly strong and gusty southerly winds this afternoon will
continue drawing GoM moisture northward with a noticeable
increase in humidity. More abundant sunshine across western North
and Central Texas will help high temperatures warm readily into
the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile, more stagnant broken high
cloudiness will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. Gusty southerly winds 15 to 25 mph will remain below
Wind Advisory criteria, but still result in choppy open water on
area lakes.

Any severe storms by early evening out west should weaken as they
move southeast and encounter gradually increasing CINH
(inhibition). That said, an isolated severe weather threat for
large hail stones and very gusty winds will remain possible past
sunset this evening, especially considering the instability within
this area and high temperatures in the mid 80s. As we move
through the nighttime hours, increasing mid level heights across
most of the CWA will likely keep a stronger EML and help to limit
any severe weather threat further east across the Red River Valley
and northeast counties. Any low storm chances will be confined to
those counties north of Hwy 380 and I-30 overnight. Another
mitigating factor would be a strongly veered and weaker LLJ of
25-35 kts. More robust cells will still be capable of very gusty
winds and small hail, with an isolated threat for large hail not
completely ruled out with more robust storms solely due to the
aforementioned steep lapse rates aloft. Any storm anvil debris and
another stratus surge Wednesday morning will help low
temperatures Wednesday morning remain in the 60s with southerly
winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday will be very similar, if not slightly cooler out west
thanks to the more expansive morning low cloudiness and slower
dissipation due to moisture depth under the EML. The frontal
boundary and any earlier extent of outflow will waffle around in
or near the immediate Red River Valley into our northeast counties
primarily along and north of I-30. With some uncertainty of how
these boundaries play out, extensive morning cloudiness and
showers, assessing the severe threat becomes more problematic and
agree with the general thunder forecast currently in place from
SPC with any low coverage of severe storms remaining well to the
west and northwest of the forecast area. All these factors should
help in keeping highs capped in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
southerly winds 10 to 20 mph.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/Midweek Onward/

An active weather period is expected the latter half of the week
as a trough approaches the region. Several days of storms, some of
which could be severe, are in store this weekend. Specific timing
and coverage remain uncertain at this time.

As we move into Wednesday night, a few remnant showers and storms
may be ongoing from the afternoon convection off a dryline just
west of our region. Additionally, a stalled front along or just
north of the Red River may also provide just enough lift for an
shower or isolated thunderstorm. Any precipitation would likely be
limited to our far northern counties, along the Red River.
Regardless of precipitation, cloudy skies will prevail region
wide. This should help keep temperatures in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees through the night with southerly winds in place.

The dryline will once again sharpen during the day on Thursday,
however, placement is expected to be across West Texas and the
Panhandle. This will keep any precipitation away from the region
during the daytime hours. As we head into Thursday evening and
overnight, strong height falls associated with a passing shortwave
will lead to additional development of showers and storms along
the dryline. Given the enhanced forcing for ascent and plenty of
moisture within the warm sector, rain chances will be rising
Thursday night and continue through Friday. Severe weather
potential will remain low Thursday night, however, this will be
changing during the day on Friday.

The dryline will be shifting eastward on Friday, providing a
source of ascent while the upper trough is moving overhead.
Ascent, coupled with increasing instability on the order of 2000
J/Kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 30 kts will increase the
threat for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon. All modes of
severe weather will be possible. The aforementioned dryline will
retreat westward on Saturday as North and Central Texas will be
in-between systems. Even with the westward retreat of the
dryline, there will still be a potential for warm advection
showers and thunderstorms during much of the afternoon.

A cold front will catch up the dryline Saturday evening/night as
the parent shortwave pushes northeast across the Central Plains.
Low-level flow ahead of the front will remain nearly parallel to
the boundary, limiting low-level convergence. If the lower levels
are able to gain a more south or southeasterly wind field,
thunderstorm coverage may be higher than currently forecast. The
guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere
across North or Central Texas, continuing the periodic rain
chances though at least the start of the next work week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
No changes on timing and trends through this evening from the 06z
discussion below. RAP/HRRR still remain the most aggressive with
MVFR cigs reaching the D10 airports around mid morning, then
dissipating by midday. Other models keep it S-E of the airports
except Waco.

Otherwise, will add a more confidence period for MVFR cigs between
10z-12z Wednesday on current TAFs.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

VFR with southerly winds around 10 kts with an occasional gust to
between 15-20 kts is expected for the D10 airports through
sunrise this morning. MVFR cigs were already noted on fogIR
satellite moving north from the Rio Grande Plains into the Hill
Country at this hour.

MVFR cigs will race NNE aided by a 45-55 kt LLJ and reach Waco in
the 13z-14z, then DFW soon after (14z-15z). With a strong
inversion at 875mb and moisture below fairly shallow and surface
temperatures rapidly warming into the 70s, I expect cigs to
briefly rise into low VFR before scattering and shifting eastward
around midday and thereafter.

Sustained surface winds are expected ramp up to between 15-20 kts
by 18z with gusts 25-30 kts before decoupling to around 10 kts
again within a few hours after sunset. CAMs do show another surge
of low MVFR cigs reaching the I-20 corridor before 12z Wednesday.
I have opted to wait until later this morning to reassess the
data and gain more confidence before introducing into the DFW TAF.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  64  81  68  81 /   0   5  10  10  10
Waco                77  63  80  68  81 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               76  61  77  65  79 /   0  20  30  20  20
Denton              79  62  80  67  81 /   0  10  20  10  10
McKinney            77  62  79  67  80 /   0  10  20  10  10
Dallas              79  64  80  69  82 /   0   0  10  10  10
Terrell             76  62  79  65  80 /   0   0  10  10   5
Corsicana           77  64  81  67  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              75  63  80  66  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  62  81  67  82 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$