179
FXUS63 KGID 112018
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasing clouds, and at least a chance for isolated
  showers and thunderstorms, tonight. More scattered activity is
  likely on Sunday, particularly during the afternoon and
  evening. The morning hours will not be a complete "washout".

- Overall, seasonably mild temperatures with off and on again
  chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the
  end up the upcoming week.

- Despite it being mid-May and nearing climatological peak
  severe weather season, chances for severe thunderstorms over
  the next 7 days is pretty low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

EXTREMELY nice and pleasant weather out there currently - it
really doesn`t get much better than this for mid-May.
Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, low dew points, plentiful
sunshine, and wind speeds 10-15 MPH, or less. It will cloud up a
bit more for the eve hrs, but dry conditions should prevail
through 03Z, at least for all but perhaps Furnas and Rooks Co.

Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase through the overnight, but general consensus in latest
hi-res guidance was for lesser coverage/organization tonight
into Sun AM, and slower arrival. So main change this forecast
package was to lower and slower the PoP grid. We still have
"likely" level PoPs for S/SW 2/3rds of the CWA by midday Sunday,
but this may still be overdone and make the AM hrs sound
worse/wetter than what I think they`ll be. In fact, latest 18Z
HRRR doesn`t have anything more than isolated to widely
scattered activity until at least early aftn hrs. Cold mid level
temps associated with the incoming upper trough should steepen
lapse rates enough to get some tall, skinny CAPE and actual
thunderstorms for the mid afternoon through early eve time
frame, and the uptick in forcing/ascent should help to increase
the overall coverage. So if you have outdoor plans for Mother`s
Day, earlier in the day will be better than later. CAPE will
likely remain less than 1000 J/kg, and all but our KS zones will
have weak deep layer shear, so severe weather appears unlikely.
Perhaps the higher shear (30-35kt from 0-6km) could lead to a
few cores with small hail, but this seems like worst case. Highs
are a bit tricky with the cloud cover and pcpn, but a lack of
significant cold push should still support 60s and 70s, warmest
N and E of the Tri-Cities where it takes the longest for thicker
cloud cover to arrive.

It`s a fairly slow moving upper trough with no real rush of dry
air, so chances continue through Sun night (50-80%), and even
into Mon AM (20-80%) - particularly for areas E and S of the
Tri-Cities. This activity will be on the NW side of main
mid/upper low, so severe weather remains unlikely. Temps will be
similar to Sun in that 60s to low 70s will be most favored
where dense overcast/pcpn are most likely to last the longest,
with more low to mid 70s for areas that clear out sooner.

We look to clear out behind this system for Tuesday, which
should allow for a rather nice day with highs in the 70s/80s
amidst seasonably light winds. Shower/storm chances return to
the area already Tue night into Wed associated with a weak cold
front. Deep moisture and instability is lacking, so not
expecting any severe weather or widespread rainfall. Temps will
only be slightly cooler for Wednesday. The rest of the forecast
will feature more of the same with generally split, zonal upper
flow and only minor/weak disturbances. So we`ll see more 70s/80s
and off and on shower/storm chances.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR expected through the period.

Sunny skies with a few aftn CU will give way to incr mid to high
clds this eve into the overnight. BKN to OVC expected on much of
Sunday, along with scattered showers and weak storms. Kept it as
VCSH for now, until specific timing and coverage becomes more
certain. Winds will vary from NW to W rest of today, then W to
SSW tonight into Sunday, but speeds will remain modest at around
6-11kt. Confidence: Med to high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies